摘要
基于区域灾害系统理论,选择致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体等11个指标构建雾霾灾害风险评价指标体系,指标权重采用灰色关联分析法来确定,并通过物元可拓模型评估珠江三角洲9个城市雾霾灾害风险等级,最后通过多指标综合评价方法检验结果的准确性。结果表明:珠江三角洲9个城市民用汽车拥有量和公路密度两个指标的关联系数整体偏高,广州市、深圳市、佛山市、东莞市民用汽车拥有量的风险等级均为Ⅳ级,多数城市公路密度的风险等级达到了Ⅲ级,其中东莞市最高;珠江三角洲城市雾霾灾害综合风险等级大多数都处于Ⅰ级,总体上较低,其中东莞市雾霾综合风险等级最高为Ⅱ级,珠江三角洲城市雾霾灾害风险主要是受孕灾环境和承灾体影响,致灾因子风险等级均为Ⅰ级;基于多指标综合评价法的珠江三角洲雾霾灾害风险评价结果与物元可拓方法基本一致,风险最低城市为中山市,风险最高城市为东莞市,两者风险排序有些差别,但是基于物元可拓模型的评价结果更符合实际,可信度更高。
Based on the theory of regional disaster system, 11 indexes of disaster causing factor, disaster pregnant environment and disaster body were selected for risk assessment of haze disaster in the Pearl River Delta, and the index weights were determined by the gray correlation analysis;the matter–element extension model was used to calculate the haze disaster risk levels of 9 cities. Finally, the accuracy of the results was tested by the multi–index comprehensive evaluation method. Results show that the correlation coefficients of civil car ownership and highway density were high overall, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan civil car ownership of risk ratings were Ⅳ level, and the risk level of highway density of most cities reached grade Ⅲ, of which the highest was Dongguan. The haze disaster risks of most cites were in the level Ⅰ, while Dongguan haze disaster comprehensive risk grade Ⅱ was the highest. The disaster risks of cites in the Pearl River Delta were mainly influenced by disaster pregnant environment and disaster body. The risk assessment results by multi–index comprehensive evaluation method was basically in accord with the results by matter–element extension model.Zhongshan was the lowest risk city, conversely, the city with the highest risk was Dongguan. There were some differences between the two methods, but the assessment results by matter–element extension model were more in line with the reality and had higher reliability.
作者
尚志海
梁立锋
陈宝怡
曹泳茵
王小花
戴鑫儒
董锡豪
SHANG Zhihai;LIANG Lifeng;CHEN Baoyi;CAO Yongyin;WANG Xiaohua;DAI Xinru;DONG Xihao(School of Geographical Sciences,Lingnan normal university,Zhanjiang 524048,China)
出处
《生态科学》
CSCD
2022年第3期149-155,共7页
Ecological Science
基金
广东省自然科学基金项目(2018A030307031)。
关键词
雾霾灾害
风险评价
珠江三角洲
物元可拓模型
haze disaster
risk assessment
Pearl River Delta
matter–element extension model
