摘要
风电作为可再生清洁能源的重要组成部分,有利于实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的目标,区域性低风速资源的开发利于风电持续发展。利用益阳市国家基本气象站19602019年的2 min平均风速资料,运用气候倾向法、Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析法,从年、季和月3个时间尺度上,分析了平均风速的变化趋势、突变和周期特征。结果表明:近60年来,益阳市年平均风速呈减小趋势,递减率为0.215 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1);春季平均风速递减趋势最为显著,递减率为0.238 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),夏季的递减趋势最不显著。Mann-Kendall检验显示,年平均风速突变发生于19891990年,夏季平均风速发生突变的年份较其他3个季节的早。小波分析表明,年平均风速变化存在周期性,年平均风速变化的第一主周期为15 a,第二主周期为30 a。益阳地区未来几年的风速可能呈减小趋势。
Wind power,as an important component of renewable clean energy,is conducive to achieving the goal of“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”,and the development of regional low wind speed resources benefits the sustainable development of wind power very much.Based on the 2 min average wind speed data from the Yiyang national basic weather station during 1960—2019,this paper analyzes the variation trend,abrupt change and periodic characteristics of average wind speed on the three time scales of year,season and month by using the methods of climate tendency,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.The analysis results indicates that in the past 60 years,the annual average wind speed in Yiyang has shown a decreasing trend,with the decreasing rate of 0.215 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1).The decreasing trend of the spring speed is the most significant among the four seasons,with the decline rate of 0.238 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),and the decreasing trend in summer is the least significant.The Mann-Kendall test reveals that the abrupt change of annual average wind speed occurred in 1989-1900,and the abrupt change time of average wind speed in summer was earlier than in the other three seasons.The Wavelet analysis suggests that the annual average wind speed changes periodically.The first main cycle of annual average wind speed is 15 years,and the second is 30 years.The wind speed in Yiyang area may decrease in the next few years.
作者
徐金阁
龚玺
戴昌明
Xu Jinge;Gong Xi;Dai Changming(Hunan Electric Power Design Institute Co.Ltd.of China Energy Engineering Group,Changsha 410007,China;National Meteorological Information Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory,Xi’an 710014,China)
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2022年第3期83-88,共6页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
中国工程院基金项目(2019-ZCQ-06)。
