摘要
基于利益相关者理论,根据食品安全网络舆情的舆情主体与舆情事件的利益紧密程度将舆情主体分为直接利益相关者、间接利益相关者和边缘利益相关者三种类型.设计重复感染的SIR改进模型,提出SDIERF模型,显示感染者在网络舆情不同发展阶段的发帖数,根据突发事件的四个预警级别设计四个不同干预力度的干预级别.通过仿真的方法,研究该三类利益相关者出现重复感染的感染人数及其发帖数的变化情况.使用实例验证了SDIERF模型的预测和监控效果,在潜伏阶段进行干预的效果最好.
According to the benefit relationship between the subjects of network public opinion about food safety and public opinion events,this paper divides the opinion subjects into three types:Direct stakeholders,indirect stakeholders and marginal stakeholders,based on the stakeholder theory.An improved SIR model with repeated infection,the SDIERF model,is designed.The model could show the numbers of net posts in different development stages of network public opinions.Four different intervention levels with different intervention efforts are designed according to the four early warning levels of emergencies.The changes in the numbers of repeatedly infected persons for the three types of stakeholders and of net posts are studied by simulations.A real case experiment verifies the prediction and monitoring effect of the SDIERF model.The effect is best to intervene in the latent stage.
作者
谢卫红
杨超波
朱郁筱
Xie Weihong;Yang Chaobo;Zhu Yuxiao(School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China;School of Economics and Commerce,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China)
出处
《系统工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期145-160,共16页
Journal of Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71672043)
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2020A1515010971)。
关键词
网络舆情
传染病模型
利益相关者
食品安全
预测
network public opinion
infectious disease model
stakeholder
food safety
prediction
