摘要
以安徽省工业行业为研究对象,基于STIRPAT模型构建安徽工业部门的碳排放趋势预测模型,并对安徽省工业人口规模、工业经济产出、人均工业产出、能源结构、能源强度和碳排放强度等指标进行低碳、基准和激进3种不同情景设定。研究发现:1)人口规模、经济产出、经济水平、能源结构的提高对安徽省工业碳排放量增加均起到促进作用,能源效率和碳排放强度分别对安徽省工业碳排放起到抑制效果。2)从情景模拟来看,低碳、基准和激进3种不同情景下,安徽省工业碳达峰的时间节点分别为2030年、2035年和2040年左右,碳排放峰值分别为45927.45万t、49325.58万t、56248.44万t。
With the industries in Anhui Province as the research object,a carbon emission trend prediction model based on STIRPAT model is proposed along with population scale,economic output,per capita industrial output,energy structure and energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity indexes such as low carbon,benchmark and setting of the three different scenarios of radical research:a)The improvement of population size,economic output,economic level and energy structure has a promoting effect on the increase of industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province,while energy efficiency and carbon emission intensity have a inhibiting effect on industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province,respectively.b)From the perspective of scenario simulation,under the three different scenarios of low carbon,baseline and radical,the peak time nodes of industrial carbon emissions in Anhui province are about 2030,2035 and 2040,and the peak carbon emissions are 459.2745 million tons,493.2558 million tons and 562.4844 million tons,respectively.
作者
张纯
ZHANG Chun(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)
出处
《黑龙江工程学院学报》
CAS
2022年第3期40-45,共6页
Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL105)
安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大项目(SK2017ZD07)
中国工程科技发展战略安徽研究院2018年重大咨询项目(2018-02)。
