摘要
科学刻画与模拟土地利用冲突的时空演化格局是精准认知区域土地利用结构进而寻求人地关系协调的基础。采用景观格局指数构建土地利用冲突模型,借助GIS等手段分析长江三角洲城市群1980—2020年间土地利用冲突的时空演化特征,并结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型和多目标规划法多情景模拟2035年的土地利用冲突格局。结果表明:①长江三角洲城市群土地利用冲突受地形等因素影响呈现“北高南低”的分布格局,且在高速城镇化和城市无序蔓延等因素作用下,人地关系趋于不协调发展,土地利用冲突程度逐年加剧。②受人口迁徙和城镇化发展阶段的影响,土地利用冲突的热点区域由乡村空间转移至了城市空间。③在土地利用过程中,耕地是各利益主体争夺的核心区域,也是权衡土地利用冲突的“关键地带”。④可持续发展情景兼顾了经济发展与生态保护两方面的用地需求,是缓和土地利用冲突的一种合理选择。
Scientific description and simulation of the spatio-temporal pattern of land use conflicts are the basis for a better understanding of regional land use structure and organization,and for seeking the coordination of man-land relationship.Firstly,this study uses the landscape pattern index to construct a land use conflict strength model.Besides,with the help of GIS and other methods,this study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 1980 to 2020.Finally,by combing the patch-generating land use simulation and multi-objective programming models,this study simulates the land use conflict pattern in 2035.The results show that:(1)Influenced by factors such as terrain and population distribution,the land use conflict in the study area shows a distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south.Under the influence of factors such as rapid urbanization and urban sprawl,the degree of land use conflicts has intensified year by year.High-value areas of land use conflict are mainly distributed in densely populated,economically developed and easily accessible areas,while low-value areas are mostly concentrated in rugged terrain and sparsely populated areas.(2)Affected by population migration and the development stage of urbanization,land use conflicts in this urban agglomeration were mainly reflected in the rural space from 1980 to 2000,and in the urban space from 2000 to 2020.(3)The cultivated land of the urban agglomeration has a vast area,fertile soil,flat and open terrain,and suitable climatic and hydrological conditions,which brings huge economic and ecological values.Therefore,cultivated land is the core area that various stakeholders compete for,as well as a"key zone"to alleviate land use conflicts.(4)The sustainable development scenario takes the land demand for both economic development and ecological protection into account,which can not only meet the economic construction needs of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,but also effectively alleviate land use conflicts.
作者
张潇
谷人旭
ZHANG Xiao;GU Renxu(Institute of Urban Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Urban and Regional Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期1311-1326,共16页
Geographical Research
关键词
人地关系
土地利用冲突
多情景模拟
多目标规划
长江三角洲城市群
man-land relationship
land use conflict
multi-scenario simulation
multi-objective programming
Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
