摘要
利用1979—2018年山东省120个国家气象站逐日降水观测数据、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim逐月再分析资料以及美国国家环境预报中心和大气研究中心逐6 h再分析资料,分析春季青藏高原大气热源强度变化对山东夏季暴雨的影响。结果表明:近40 a山东大部地区暴雨日数呈增加趋势,鲁西南、鲁西北中东部增加趋势显著。春季、夏季高原均为东亚大气热源较强区域,春季高原大气热源强中心区的强度与山东夏季暴雨指数呈显著正相关。当春季高原大气热源增强时,夏季南亚高压加强、东扩,200 hPa南亚高压易呈中部型,500 hPa中国东北地区易有冷涡生成南下,日本东部西太平洋副热带高压加强北抬,山东处于冷暖气流交汇区,同时明显有自南向北的水汽输送至山东地区,低层辐合、高层辐散的环流配置促使该地区上升气流增强,有利于降水产生。春季高原大气热源强度与夏季南亚高压强度、丝绸之路遥相关分别呈显著正、负相关,大气热源增强下的环流形势有利于山东地区出现强降雨。
Based on daily precipitation observation data at 120 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province, monthly reanalysis data of ERA-Interim from ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hour reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) from 1979 to 2018, the influence of spring atmospheric heat source intensity over the Tibetan Plateau on summer rainstorm in Shandong Province was analyzed. The results show that rainstorm days presented an increasing trend in most areas of Shandong Province from 1979 to 2018, and the increasing trend of rainstorm days was significant in southwestern Shandong and the mid-east part of northwestern Shandong. The atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau was stronger than that in other areas of East Asia in spring and summer. The intensity of spring atmospheric heat source in strong central region over the Tibetan Plateau was significantly and positively correlated with summer rainstorm index in Shandong. When the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau strengthened in spring, the South Asia high enhanced and extended to eastward in summer, and it was easily to appear “the central pattern” at 200 hPa. At the same time, the cold vortex at 500 hPa over northeastern China was easily to generate and moved southward, and the west Pacific subtropical high over eastern Japan strengthened and moved northward, the cold and warm airflow intersected over Shandong. In additional, there was significant water vapor transporting to Shandong from south to north. The circulation configuration with low-level convergence and upper-level divergence prompted updraft enhancement over Shandong, which was beneficial to rainfall. The intensity of atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau in spring had significantly positive and negative correlation with the South Asia high intensity and the Silk Road teleconnection correlation in summer, respectively, and the circulation situation under atmospheric heat source enhancement was conducive to occurrence of heavy rainfall in Shandong.
作者
焦洋
张永婧
尹承美
褚颖佳
JIAO Yang;ZHANG Yongjing;YIN Chengmei;CHU Yingjia(Ji’nan Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Ji’nan 250102,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province,Ji’nan 250102,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2022年第3期406-414,共9页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2019-063)
山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2017-07)共同资助。
关键词
青藏高原
春季大气热源强度
夏季暴雨
大气遥相关
大气环流
山东省
the Tibetan Plateau
spring atmospheric heat source intensity
summer rainstorm
atmospheric teleconnection
atmospheric circulation
Shandong Province
