摘要
面对人身失能风险,社会长期护理保险和包含商业长期护理保险及失能收入损失险在内的商业健康保险,是最佳风险化解手段,前者由政府提供基本保障,后者由商业机构提供补充保障。“十四五”期间,我国将稳步建立长期护理保险制度,在此趋势下,研究长护险制度对商业健康保险的影响是二者协调发展的前提。本文以青岛长护险试点作为一个准自然实验,利用合成控制法,首次实证探究了长护险制度对商业健康保险的影响。结果发现,制度实施初期,实际商业健康保险保费收入相对于未实施该制度时潜在的保费收入出现小幅降低,整体下降幅度约为3.12%,平均每年的抑制效应为0.78%。随后保费收入迅速大幅持续增高,整体上升幅度约为28.91%,平均每年的增长效应为5.78%,即长护险制度对商业健康保险的影响表现出先短暂小幅度抑制后持续明显促进。基于此,本文从险种定位和产品开发等方面提出二者协调发展的相关建议。
Faced with personal disorder risk,long-term care insurance for social care and commercial health insurance including long-term nursing insurance and disable income loss is the best way to resolve the risk.Commercial institutions provide supplementary guarantees.During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,my country will steadily establish a long-term nursing insurance system.Under this trend,studying the impact of the long-nursing system on commercial health insurance is the prerequisite for the coordinated development of the two.This article uses the 2012 Qingdao pilot as a natural experiment.It selected 26 domestic city panel data,including Qingdao,including Qingdao from 2006 to 2020.It adopted the first quantitative assessment of the synthetic control law in the project evaluation to evaluate the impact of the long-term insurance system on commercial health insurance.The study found that in the early stage of the implementation of the system,the actual commercial health insurance premium income decreased slightly compared to the potential premium income of the system when the system was not implemented.The overall decline was about 3.12%,and the average annual inhibitory effect was 0.78%.Subsequently,the premium income continued to increase sharply,the overall increase was about 28.91%,and the average annual growth effect was 5.78%.The effect of the long-term protection system on commercial health insurance showed a significant significant promotion of the short-term suppression.Based on this,this article puts forward relevant suggestions for the coordinated development of the two from the aspects of insurance positioning and product development.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2022年第2期36-42,140,共8页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“人口老龄化背景下我国农村失能老年人‘居家扶助型’养老模式研究”(16YJA840004)的基金资助。
关键词
长期护理保险
商业健康保险
政策效应
合成控制法
long-term care insurance
commercial health insurance
policy effect
synthetic control method
