摘要
目的基于后疫情时代医疗物资需求的突发性与时效性等特点,做好医院防疫物资备库保障工作。方法回顾医院应对新冠肺炎疫情时期的医疗物资保障工作,在疫情发展不同阶段,建立三次指数平滑的模型预测医疗物资需求,分析不同疫情演化下对防疫物资的需求结果。绘制进入后疫情时代防护服、口罩、隔离衣、护目镜、工作帽、鞋套、手套等物品消耗用量与预测用量的曲线对比图。结果推演结果与后疫情时代的疫情发展情景和发展状态基本一致。结论验证了三次指数平滑法在预测疫情医疗物资备库的合理性和可行性。
Objective Based on the characteristics of the suddenness and timeliness of medical materials demand in the post-epidemic era of COVID-19,we need to ensure the inventory reserves for the epidemic period in hospitals.Methods This paper reviewed the hospital's medical supplies during the COVID-19 outbreak.In different stages of the development of the epidemic,a cubic-exponential smooth model was established to predict the demand for medical materials and analyze the results of the demand for epidemic prevention materials under the evolution of different epidemics.The charts of real consumption and predication consumption of protective clothing,masks,isolation clothing,eye protection,work caps,shoe covers,gloves and other items in the post-epidemic era were drawn and compared.Results The deduction results are basically consistent with the epidemic development scenario and development status in the post-epidemic era.Conclusion This study verifies the rationality and feasibility of the cubic-exponential smoothing method in forecast epidemic supplies in reserve.
作者
唐杰
TANG Jie(Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital Shanghai,200433)
出处
《生物医学工程学进展》
CAS
2022年第2期110-113,共4页
Progress in Biomedical Engineering
关键词
后疫情时期
医疗物资
备库
三次指数平滑法
post-epidemic period
medical supplies
inventory reserves
cubic exponential smoothing
