摘要
为在成渝经济区大尺度范围内开展高精度的未来碳储量演化分析,提升碳储量测算分析的精度和准确度,提出采用PLUS模型和InVEST模型相结合的研究路径,开展成渝经济区2000—2050年自然发展和生态保护两种情景下的碳储量演化分析。结果显示:(1)PLUS模型在成渝经济区的模拟效果较好,2000年模拟2010年、2010年模拟2020年的Kappa系数分别为0.82、0.84,属于高度一致级别。相较自然发展情景,生态保护情景下建设用地增幅降低、林地降幅减少。(2)InVEST模型测算结果显示2000—2050年碳储量总体呈现先增加后降低的趋势,空间上存在明显的“内部低、外围高”的特点。2000年、2010年、2020年总碳储量分别为5.772×10^(9)t、5.813×10^(9)t、5.806×10^(9)t,生态保护情景相较自然发展情景各时期碳储量均提升了约2×10^(6)t。(3)等级分析结果来看,2030年、2040年、2050年生态保护情景相比自然发展情景,极剧下降、下降、不变、上升、极剧上升等级的比例分别为0.01%、0.03%、99.52%、0.41%、0.03%和0.01%、0.07%、99.74%、0.14%、0.04%,以及0.03%、0.09%、99.61%、0.20%、0.07%,表明生态保护情景下区域内碳储量整体上高于自然发展情景。研究认为应加大碳密度长期监测和数据库建立方面的研究,同时应控制城市化扩张速度,加大城市发展空间格局优化力度,维持区域碳储量平衡,为完成碳中和目标提供保障。
In order to carry out carbon stock evolution analysis of high precision in a large-scale range of Chengdu-Chongqing Eco⁃nomic Zone and improve the accuracy of carbon stock calculation,the study proposed a combination of PLUS model with InVEST model to analyze the evolution of carbon stock under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological protection in Cheng du-Chongqing Economic Zone from 2000 to 2050.The results show that:(1)The simulation of PLUS model in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone was better.The Kappa coefficients in 2000 and 2010 are 0.82 and 0.84 respectively,in the high consistency level.Compared with the natural development scenario,both the growth rate of construction land and the decreasing rate of forest land un⁃der the ecological protection scenario were expected to reduce reduced.(2)The total cabon stock of the InVEST calculation in the 2000-2050 years shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,with obvious characteristics of“low inside and high out⁃side”in space.The total carbon stock in 2000,2010 and 2020 are 5.772×10^(9)t,5.813×10^(9)t and 5.806×10^(9)t respectively.Under the natural development scenario,the carbon stock in 2030,2040 and 2050 were estimated to be 5.798×10^(9)t,5.789×10^(9)t and 5.780×10^(9)t respectively.With the ecological protection scenario,the carbon reserves in each period were expected to increase by 2×10^(6)Mg.(3)According to the grade analysis,the proportions of extreme decline,decline,unchanged,rise and extreme rise in the ecological protection scenarios in 2030,2040 and 2050 are 0.01%,0.03%,99.52%,0.41%,0.03%,and 0.01%,0.07%,99.74%,0.14%,0.04%,as well as 0.03%,0.09%,99.61%,0.20%,0.07%respectively.Regional carbon stock under the ecological protec⁃tion scenario are expected to be higher than those under the natural development scenario.This study suggests that the research on long-term carbon density monitoring and database establishment should be strengthened.At the same time,it heeds to control the speed of urbanization expansion and strengthen the optimization of the spatial pattern of urban development,so as to ensure region⁃al carbon stock and maintain carbon balance,and to provide guarantee for the carbon neutralization goal.
作者
伍丹
朱康文
张晟
黄昌前
李剑
WU Dan;ZHU Kangwen;ZHANG Sheng;HUANG Changqian;LI Jian(Chongqing Vocational College of Culture and Arts,Chongqing 400067,China;Chongqing Academy of Eco-environmental Sci-ence,Chongqing 401147,China;Bureau of Ecological Environment of Qijiang District,Chongqing 401420,China;Bureau of Ecological Environment of Chongqing,Chongqing 401147,China)
出处
《三峡生态环境监测》
2022年第2期85-96,共12页
Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges
基金
重庆市科研机构绩效激励引导专项(Cqhky2021JxJ100001)。
