摘要
以产业协同集聚助力消费扩容提质是“十四五”时期形成强大国内市场的有效途径。文章沿着“现象—机制—效应”的研究脉络,基于中国内地2006-2018年30省(区、市)的面板数据,通过测度我国省域物流业与制造业协同集聚指数,并借助探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法和动态空间杜宾模型探究发现:我国省域物流业与制造业协同集聚水平呈现出“自东向西”梯度递减的空间演化格局;我国两业协同集聚、城乡收入差距以及居民消费均具有显著空间相关性、集聚趋势和空间异质性;两业协同集聚对本地区居民消费的扩张作用呈现倒“U”型曲线特征,对邻近地区居民消费产生“U”型非线性特征的空间溢出效应,并且上述作用效果在长、短期阶段展现出高度一致性,但在不同区域间存有较大差异;进一步分析发现,城乡收入差距在两业协同集聚与居民消费扩张间存在部分负向中介效应。研究结果可为强化我国物流业与制造业融合发展、优化产业空间布局以及推动居民消费增长提供指导和方向。
It is an effective way to form a strong domestic market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period to boost consumption capacity and improve quality through industrial synergy. Based on panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China’s Mainland from 2006 to 2018, this paper measures the co-agglomeration index of logistics industry and manufacturing industry at provincial level in China, and uses ESDA and Durbin model to explore the following findings: The level of co-agglomeration of logistics industry and manufacturing industry in China presents a spatial evolution pattern of decreasing from east to west. The co-agglomeration of two industries, the income gap between urban and rural areas and residents’ consumption in China all have significant spatial correlation, agglomeration trend and spatial heterogeneity. The co-agglomeration of the two industries presents an inverted u-shaped curve in the expansion of local residents’ consumption, and produces a u-shaped nonlinear spatial spillover effect on residents’ consumption in neighboring areas. The above effects are highly consistent in the long and short term, but there are great differences among different regions.Further analysis shows that the urban-rural income gap has some negative mediating effect between the co-agglomeration of the two industries and the expansion of household consumption. The results provide guidance and direction for strengthening the integrated development of logistics industry and manufacturing industry in China, optimizing the industrial spatial distribution and promoting the growth of household consumption.
作者
张弘
吴顺利
ZHANG Hong;WU Shun-li(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《消费经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期41-56,共16页
Consumer Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJ022)。
关键词
物流业
制造业
协同集聚
居民消费
动态SDM
The Logistics Industry
Manufacturing
Co-agglomeration
Household Consumption
Dynamic SDM
