摘要
京津冀区域化石能源消费和工业产品产量大,二氧化碳(CO_(2))和大气污染物协同减排面临较大挑战.本研究采用排放因子法,核算了2011—2017年京津冀区域CO_(2)排放总量,识别其排放特征和影响因素.基于情景分析法,结合减排协同率、线性回归分析方法对京津冀区域内CO_(2)和主要大气污染物(SO_(2)、NOx)协同减排情况进行量化评估,提出未来协同控制对策和建议.研究结果表明:(1)2011—2017年京津冀区域CO_(2)排放总量呈现先上升后下降的趋势,2013年达到最大值(17.7亿t),此后受产业结构和能源结构调整带动,CO_(2)排放量下降,2017年降至16.0亿t,较2013年下降了9.60%.(2)2011—2017年间京津冀区域SO_(2)与CO_(2)排放协同性较好,说明降低煤炭、燃油消耗对区域内SO_(2)和CO_(2)协同减排效果较为显著;NOx与CO_(2)排放协同性相对较差,还需要进一步降低交通、工业等领域油品消耗.(3)河北省能源消费以煤、油为主,工业生产量大,减排潜力较北京市、天津市更大,需持续优化产业结构并降低化石燃料消费总量.(4)对于未来京津冀区域大气污染物和CO_(2)协同控制,建议因地适宜、分阶段制定减排目标,合理设置减排力度,动态调整协同减排政策.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,with its large fossil energy consumption and industrial output,faces great challenges in coordinated emission reduction of air pollutants and carbon dioxide(CO_(2)).In this study,the emission factor method was used to calculate the CO_(2)emissions in BTH region from 2011 to 2017,and identify the emission characteristics and influencing factors.Based on the scenario analysis method,the collaborative emission reduction of CO_(2),SO_(2)and NOx in this region was quantitatively evaluated with the coordination rate of emission reduction and linear regression analysis method,and the future coordinated control countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.The results showed that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions in BTH region firstly increased and then decreased from 2011 to 2017,reaching the maximum value in 2013(1.77 billion t),and then,driven by the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure,CO_(2)emissions decreased to 1.60 billion t in 2017,a decrease of 9.60%compared with 2013.(2)The synergistic effect of SO_(2)and CO_(2)emissions in BTH region from 2011 to 2017 was good,indicating that reducing coal and fuel consumption had a significant synergistic effect on SO_(2)and CO_(2)emission reduction in the region.The synergy between NOx and CO_(2)emissions was relatively poor,and it was necessary to further reduce oil consumption in transportation,industry and other fields.(3)Energy consumption in Hebei province is dominated by coal and oil,with large industrial production and greater emission reduction potential than Beijing and Tianjin.It is necessary to continuously optimize the industrial structure and reduce the total consumption of fossil fuels.(4)For the coordinated control of air pollutants and CO_(2)in BTH region in the future,it is suggested to set emission reduction targets in stages according to local conditions,reasonably set emission reduction intensity,and dynamically adjust coordinated emission reduction policies.
作者
万芸菲
崔阳阳
吴雪芳
沈岩
薛亦峰
WAN Yunfei;CUI Yangyang;WU Xuefang;SHEN Yan;XUE Yifeng(College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048;Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Eco-Environmental Protection,National Engineering Research Center of Urban Environmental Pollution Control,Beijing 100037)
出处
《首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2022年第4期46-52,74,共8页
Journal of Capital Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
北京市生态环境局研究项目
能源基金会研究项目。
关键词
京津冀区域
CO_(2)
排放因子
大气污染物
协同控制
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
carbon dioxide(CO_(2))
emission factor
air pollutants
coordinated control
