摘要
提高经济韧性在高质量发展稳步前进过程中愈发重要。以绿色GDP为衡量指标,测量黄河流域在面对短期冲击与长期扰动时两种能力整合的经济韧性,基于经济、资源与环境构建系统动力学模型,设置3个政策情景,每个情景设置弱、中、强3小类情景,结果表明:2006-2019年,黄河流域经济韧性受到“2008年金融危机”和“2014年经济新常态”两次较为明显冲击,以此可分为三个时期,在三个时期内总体呈现“全面领先”、“基本持平”、“总体落后”的演进格局,区域上呈现“中游>上游>下游>全国”、“上游>中游(全国)>下游”、“全国>下游>上游>中游”的空间分布特征演变,省域上青海、陕西、河南经济韧性表现较好,宁夏、内蒙古表现次之,山东、山西、甘肃表现较差;2020-2030年,负面清单情景优于强化资源利用情景,3小类发展情景的韧性均值分别为后者的4倍、3.5倍、4.5倍,强化污染治理情景效果最差。
Improving economic resilience is important for high-quality and stable economic develop⁃ment.This paper uses green GDP as the metric to measure the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin in the face of short-term shocks and long-term disturbances,builds a system dynamics model based on economy,resources,and environment,and sets three policy scenarios,each of which set up three sub-categories of weak,medium and strong scenarios.The results show that the economic resil⁃ience of the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2019 was significantly impacted by the financial crisis in 2008 and the new normal of the economy in 2014,which can be divided into three periods,in which the overall evolution pattern of"overall leading","basically flat"and"overall backward"was presented.Re⁃gionally the economic resilience showed the evolution of the spatial distribution characteristics of"mid⁃dle stream>Upper stream>Lower stream>National","Upper stream>Middle stream(National)>Lower stream","National>Lower stream>Upper stream>Middle stream".On the provincial level,Qinghai,Shaanxi,and Henan performed better in economic resilience,followed by Ningxia and Inner Mongolia,while Shandong,Shanxi,and Gansu performed poorly.From 2020 to 2030,the negative list scenario is better than the enhanced resource utilization scenario,and the average resilience of the three sub-categories of development scenarios is 4 times,3.5 times,and 4.5 times that of the latter,respec⁃tively,and the enhanced pollution control scenario has the worst effect.
作者
姜蒙强
周志太
JIANG Meng-qiang;ZHOU Zhi-tai(School of Economics and Management,Huaibei Normal University,Huaibei 235000;State owned Economy Research Center of Jilin University,Changchun 130000,China)
出处
《兰州财经大学学报》
2022年第3期16-26,共11页
Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学基金重点项目“政府与市场协同创新网络研究”(AHSKZ2019D007)
安徽省社会科学基金孵化项目“市场机制与举国体制协同推进核心技术研究”(AHSKF2020D10)。
关键词
黄河流域
绿色GDP
经济韧性
系统动力学
Yellow River basin
green GDP
economic resilience
system dynamics
