摘要
以中国31个省份的碳汇发展潜力为研究对象,将2008、2013及2018年的林业统计数据作为研究数据,基于熵权信息和模糊一致性判断矩阵对各省份的森林碳汇发展潜力水平进行定量分析,探究森林碳汇发展的主导因素,从地域视角和时间视角两个方面探讨目前中国森林碳汇发展的现状以及潜力。研究表明:对森林碳汇发展影响最大的因素为木材产量、年降水量和林业重点生态工程造林面积,影响最小的因素为森林面积和森林病虫害发生面积;森林碳汇的发展受到资源、经济以及政策的影响。发展潜力最大的省份为广西和云南,发展潜力最小的省份为天津和宁夏。建议通过提高森林经营管理水平,不断完善经济政策,以增加森林蓄积量和提升林业产业为发展方向,全面提高中国的森林碳汇。
This paper constructed an evaluation index system of forest carbon sequestration development potential.Taking the carbon sequestration development potential of 31 provinces in China as the research object,this paper used the forestry statistical data of 2008,2013 and 2018 as the research data to make a quantitative analysis on the forest carbon sequestration development potential level of each province based on entropy weight information and fuzzy consistency judgment matrix,and it explored the leading factors of forest carbon sequestration development.This paper discussed the current situation and potential of forest carbon sequestration in China from the perspective of region and time.The results showed that the most influential factors on the development of forest carbon sequestration were forest stock and annual precipitation,and the least influential factors were forest area and forest fire affected area;The development of forest carbon sequestration was affected by resources,economy and policies.The provinces with the largest development potential were Guangxi and Yunnan,and the provinces with the smallest development potential were Tianjin and Ningxia.Through the improvement of forest management level and the continuous improvement of economic policies,China's forest carbon sequestration could be comprehensively improved by taking increasing forest stock and improving forestry industry as the two main development directions.
作者
陈思婷
黄衍
何霄
CHEN Si-ting;HUANG Yan;HE Xiao(College of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;College of Computer and Information Science,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)
出处
《中国林业经济》
2022年第4期68-72,共5页
China Forestry Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“可变标杆面下的资源优化配置研究:以森林碳汇效率为例”(72001042)
福建省自然科学基金项目“基于可变生产可能集的区间交叉效率研究(2019J01399)”
中国博士后基金面上项目“共识效率下林业碳汇共同开发项目的资源优化配置研究(2021M700781)”
福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目(社科类)“不确定环境下森林碳汇效率的标杆设置与优化方法研究”(CXZX2021029)。
关键词
森林碳汇
指标体系
熵
模糊一致性矩阵
Forest carbon sink
Indicator system
Entropy
Fuzzy consistency matrix
