摘要
【目的】根据民勤绿洲农业生产情况,对2004—2019年农业碳排放进行评估。为减少民勤绿洲农业生产碳排放量,以期为民勤绿洲农业生产引导低碳方式做出理论参考。【方法】利用农业碳排放核算系数法对农业碳排放进行估算,结合系统动力学的方法与原理联结民勤绿洲农业生产投入要素,分别构建民勤绿洲耕地—农业生产与家畜生产碳排放模型,模拟民勤绿洲未来11年农业生产碳排放变化趋势。【结果】通过仿真和模拟,2004—2030年民勤绿洲耕地—农业和家畜碳排放呈“上升—下降—上升”趋势。到2030年耕地—农业产生的碳排放和家畜产生的碳排放量分别达到3277.93万t、37.15万t,分别是2004年的0.4和2.7倍,年均增长率分别达到1.4%、5.2%。家畜碳排放增长速度比耕地—农资投入增长速度快。在影响耕地—农业碳排放的碳源中农业机械产生的碳排放量最高,到2019年碳排放量占总碳排放量的44.5%。家畜养殖数量是人为可控的,所以数量随着市场需求波动。通过调整农业机械总动力和家畜羊的增加速率以减少农业碳排放量,到2030年耕地—农业和家畜的碳排放量分别为2930.56万t、23.33万t,比调整前碳排放量分别减少了347.37万t、13.82万t,减排效果显著。【结论】2004—2030年农业生产碳排放呈增加的趋势,耕地—农业农资投入使用量和家畜的年末存栏数直接影响着农业碳排放量。
【Objective】Based on the agricultural production in Minqin oasis,the agricultural carbon emissions from 2004—2019 were assessed.In order to reduce the carbon emission of Minqin oasis agricultural production,and make a theoretical reference for Minqin oasis agricultural production to guide a low-carbon approach.【Method】The agricultural carbon emissions were estimated by using the agricultural carbon accounting coefficient method,combining the methods and principles of system dynamics to link the input factors of agricultural production in Minqin oasis,and constructing the carbon emission models of arable land-agricultural production and livestock production in Minqin oasis respectively to simulate the trend of carbon emission of agricultural production in Minqin oasis in the next 11 years.【Result】Through simulation and modeling,the carbon emissions from arable land-agriculture and livestock in Minqin oasis from 2004 to 2030 showed a‘rising-declining-rising’trend.By 2030,carbon emissions from farmland-agriculture and carbon emissions from livestock will reach 3277.93×10~4 tons and 37.15×10~4 tons,respectively,which were 0.4 times and 2.7 times higher than those in 2004,with an average annual growth rate of 1.4%and 5.2%,respectively.The growth rate of carbon emission from livestock was faster than the growth rate of arable-agricultural inputs.Among the carbon sources affecting cropland-agricultural carbon emissions agricultural machinery produces the highest carbon emissions,accounting for 44.5%of total carbon emissions by 2019.The number of livestock breeding was artificially controllable,so the number fluctuates with market demand.By adjusting the rate of increase of total power of agricultural machinery and livestock sheep to reduce agricultural carbon emissions,the carbon emissions from cropland-agriculture and livestock will be 2930.56×10~4 tons and 23.33×10~4 tons respectively by 2030,which were 347.37×10~4 tons and 13.82×10~4 tons less than the carbon emissions before adjustment.【Conclusion】Carbon emissions from agricultural production show an increasing trend from 2004 to 2030,and the amount of arable land-agricultural inputs used and the year-end stock of livestock directly influence agricultural carbon emissions.
作者
陈军娟
燕振刚
李薇
李广
CHEN Jun-juan;YAN Zhen-gang;LI Wei;LI Guang(College of Information Science and Technology,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Forestry,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《西南农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期1432-1440,共9页
Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
甘肃省财政厅项目(GSCZZ-20160909-03)
国家自然科学项目(31660347)。
关键词
系统动力学
碳排放
农业生产
家畜
System dynamics
Carbon emission
Agriculture production
Livestock
