摘要
采用线性回归法对长江源区2011—2021年土壤水分含量年际变化趋势进行分析,采用t检验法对长江源区2011—2021年平均气温和降水量变化与土壤水分含量变化间的相关性分析,并采用CMIP5全球气候模型的3种情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下耦合SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型,预测长江源区未来(2022—2100年)土壤水分年际、年内变化趋势.结果表明,长江源区2011—2021年土壤水分整体呈减少趋势,年平均气温和降水量与土壤水分变化具有明显的相关性(P<0.05). 3种RCPs气候情景下,21世纪末期(2081—2090年)土壤水分含量较21世纪中期(2041—2050年)减少,4—9月土壤水分占全年土壤水分占比较21世纪中期降低.土壤水分年际间波动较大,在50%~500%之间变动,土壤水分年内分布不均匀,1—5月土壤水分增加,6—12月土壤水分递减,1—2月土壤水分变化趋势相对平稳,年内各月份土壤水分含量差别较大.在3种RCPs气候情景下,长江源区未来土壤水分存在明显减少趋势,应加强长江源区土壤水系保护.
Linear regression method was used to analyze the inter-annual variation trend of soil water content in the source region of the Yangtze River from 2011 to 2021,and the t test was used to analyze the correlation between the changes of average temperature and precipitation and the changes of soil water content in the source region of the Yangtze River from 2011 to 2021.Three scenarios of the CMIP5 global climate model(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5)were coupled with the SWAT hydrological model to predict the inter-annual and intra-annual trends of soil moisture in the source region of the Yangtze River in the future(2022−2100).The results show that soil moisture in the source region of the Yangtze River showed a decreasing trend from 2011 to 2021,and there was a significant correlation between annual mean temperature and precipitation,and soil moisture(P<0.05).Under the three RCPs climate scenarios,soil moisture content in the late 21st century(2081−2090)is lower than that in the middle of the 21st century(2041−2050),and the proportion of soil moisture in the annual total soil moisture from April to September(2081−2090)is lower than that in the mid-21st century.Soil moisture greatly fluctuates inter-annually,varying from 50%to 500%.The distribution of soil moisture is uneven throughout the year:soil moisture increases from January to May,decreases from June to December,and the change trend is relatively stable from January to February.Under the three RCPs climate scenarios,soil moisture in the source region of the Yangtze River will decrease significantly in the future,and soil water system protection should be strengthened in the source region.
作者
李健明
鄯仁欠姐
杨颖
祁雪姣
哈妍晖
王雨欣
何奕
李悦姣
卢素锦
LI Jian-ming;Shanrenqianjie;YANG Ying;QI Xue-jiao;HA Yan-hui;WANG Yu-xin;HE Yi;LI Yue-jiao;LU Su-jin(College of Ecological and Environmental Engineering,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,Qinghai,China)
出处
《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期775-784,共10页
Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(31760147)
青海省科技厅项目(2020-ZJ-763,2021-ZJ-926)。
关键词
长江源区
气候变化
土壤水分
CMIP5
RCPs
SWAT模型
source region of the Yangtze River
climate change
soil moisture
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)
Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)
SWAT model
