摘要
东北三省人口负增长近年来受到广泛关注,人口外流被认为是东北人口大幅减少的主要因素,但现有研究对东北人口跨省迁移规模的估计方法相对有限,关于迁移流动对东北人口规模和结构影响的认识尚不清晰。本文使用1953年以来的全国人口普查数据,利用普查存活比法系统测算1953-2020年东北三省净迁移人口规模、性别年龄结构的特征和变迁,评估人口迁移对东北三省人口发展的影响。研究发现东北人口净迁移经历了人口大量净迁入、净迁入萎缩、人口波动净迁出、大量净迁出四个阶段。各阶段净迁移人口年龄结构特征可依次概括为:劳动年龄人口及随迁儿童大量净迁入、劳动年龄人口及儿童净迁出、老年人口净迁出和全年龄人口净迁出。新中国成立初期人口净迁入提高了东北人口增量和人口红利,1982年后人口迁移对东北人口存量削弱作用逐步增强并在2000年后成为东北人口变动的主导因素。劳动力外迁消减了东北人口红利,老年人口外迁降低了老龄化程度、延长了东北人口红利,但这两种作用已逐步消失。黑龙江人口变动受人口净迁移影响最大,吉林次之,辽宁最为有限。当前,东北三省均已进入以人口净迁出为主导的人口负增长阶段,应从振兴经济、改善民生、引导观念等多方面着手,因地制宜破解东北人口流失困局。
Negative population growth in the three provinces of Northeast China has raised widespread concerns,and out-migration is considered to be the main factor of the significant decrease.However,the estimation method of migration is relatively limited in existing studies,and the impacts of migration on number and structure of population in Northeast China is still not clear.Using the data of National Population Census of China and survival ratio method,this paper analyzes the evolution pattern of the scale,gender and age structure of inter-provincial migration in the three provinces of Northeast China,and evaluates the impact of migration on the population development.Results show that net migration in Northeast China from 1953 to 2020 can be divided into four stages:high-intensity net in-migration,shrinking net in-migration,fluctuating net out-migration and high-intensity net out-migration.The age structure variation of migration in these four stages can be summarized as follows:net in-migration of labor force and accompanying children,net out-migration of labor force and accompanying children,net out migration of the elderly and net out-migration of all ages.High-intensity net in-migration firstly accelerated the population growth in the three provinces of Northeast China.In the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China,migration increased the population increment and demographic dividend in Northeast China.However,migration started to weaken the population stock in the three provinces of Northeast China since 1982,and net out-migration gradually became the decisive factor leading to the negative population growth in the three provinces of Northeast China.Net in-migration increases the demographic dividend in Northeast China from 1953 to 1982,and then net out-migration weakens the dividend.To some extent,the out-migration of the elderly has extended the demographic dividend period and alleviated the degree of aging in the three provinces of Northeast China,but this effect is disappearing.Among the three provinces in Northeast China,population change in Heilongjiang is most affected by net migration,followed by Jilin,and Liaoning has the most limited impact.However,all three provinces have entered the stage of negative population growth dominated by net out-migration,relevant policies about revitalizing economy,improving people’s livelihood and proper ideas guiding should be enacted to solve the dilemma of population loss in Northeast China.
作者
段成荣
盛丹阳
DUAN Chengrong;SHENG Danyang(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期14-28,共15页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目:中国少数民族人口迁移流动与民族互嵌格局形成研究(20&ZD172)。
