摘要
为了分析典型自然灾害对常压储罐的影响,针对包括雷击、洪水的气象灾害及地震灾害进行研究。分别分析这两类自然灾害所引起的事故类型及其风险,建立事件树。结合相应的易损性模型及构建的事件树建立了储罐的失效概率模型,然后计算个人风险和社会风险来刻画灾害的后果,构建完整的针对典型自然灾害引发常压储罐破坏的定量风险评估模型。最后通过案例计算验证了该定量风险评估模型的可行性和实用性。结果表明:在雷击作用下,外浮顶储罐比固定顶储罐更易失效;高液面的常压储罐在洪水作用下失效概率较小;雷击外浮顶原油储罐和地震作用固定顶柴油储罐的个人风险均达到了一级和二级的风险标准,其社会风险也都有一部分处于“不可容许区”。
This paper intends to analyze the impact of typical natural disasters on atmospheric storage tanks.To achieve the purpose,the impact of meteorological disasters including lightning,flood,and earthquake disasters was studied,and the accident types,risks caused by two types of natural disasters were analyzed respectively,and the event trees have been established.With the corresponding vulnerability model and event trees,the failure probability models of storage tanks were established.In the analysis of tank failure caused by lightning stroke,different failure probabilities of hitting the floating roof and hitting tank body were considered respectively under the same event tree,and two types of storage tanks,external floating roof atmospheric tank,and fixed roof atmospheric tank have been considered.Finally,the values of individual and social risk were calculated to describe the consequences of disasters,and a complete quantitative risk assessment model for atmospheric storage tank damage caused by typical natural disasters was built.The feasibility and practicability of the assessment model were verified by case analysis and calculation.Under the conditions of this case,the probability of external floating roof crude oil tanks VCE and pool fire caused by lightning is 7.90×10^(-5),the probability of the same accident of fixed roof diesel tanks caused by lightning is 5.70×10^(-6),the probability of the same accident of fixed roof atmospheric diesel tanks caused by the earthquake is 8.50×10^(-3).The results show that the external floating roof tank is more likely to fail than the fixed roof tank under the action of lightning.The failure probability of the atmospheric tank with a high liquid level is small under the action of the flood.The individual risks of external floating roof crude oil storage tanks under lightning and fixed roof diesel storage tanks under earthquake both reach the standard value of level one and level two,and part of their social risks values are in the“unacceptable area”.
作者
孙东亮
李子杰
SUN Dong-liang;LI Zi-jie(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期1178-1186,共9页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
上海市自然科学基金项目(16ZR1408500)。
关键词
安全工程
自然灾害
常压储罐
失效概率
风险分析
safety engineering
natural disasters
atmospheric storage tank
failure probability
risk analysis
