摘要
本文以大豆、玉米、稻谷、小麦和棉花为例,基于非线性视角,实证分析了金融化作用下国际农产品价格异动对中国农产品价格的影响及形成机理。研究发现:由金融化引致的国际农产品价格异动对其国内价格具有重要影响,且该影响在不同品种间、市场高涨和低迷状态下及不同时期内差异显著。机制检验结果表明,品种进口依存度越高,其国内价格受国际价格异动的影响越大;人民币对美元升值会强化国际价格异动的传导效应;政策干预对国际市场金融化冲击的阻隔作用有限,且在托底型政策转变为补贴型政策之后,国内市场更易受国际价格异动的影响;国内投机情绪、国际金融动荡和全球经济政策不确定性与国际价格异动的传导效应之间存在显著的“U”型关系。
Taking soybean,corn,rice,wheat,and cotton as examples,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of financialization-driven fluctuation of the international agricultural product price on China's agricultural product price and its formation mechanism from a nonlinear perspective.It finds that the unusual fluctuation of international agricultural product price caused by financialization generally influences China's agricultural product price,which exhibits significant differences in the variety,market state,and time dimensions.The impact mechanism is further examined,and the results show that the higher the degree of import dependence,the greater the impact of the unusual fluctuation of the international price.The appreciation of RMB against US dollar will enhance the transmission effect of the unusual fluctuation of international price.The barrier effect of policy intervention is limited,and domestic markets are more vulnerable to international markets'financialization shock after the bottom supporting policy is transformed into the subsidy policy.There is a significant U-shaped relationship between domestic speculation,international financial turmoil,global economic policy uncertainty,and the transmission effect of the unusual fluctuation of international price.
作者
刘璐
张帮正
LIU Lu;ZHANG Bangzheng
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第8期114-131,共18页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“新形势下国际大宗农产品金融化及其对我国粮食供需平衡的影响研究”(编号:19CJY043)
教育部人文社会科学基金项目“多源数据环境下基于深度学习的大宗农产品期货价格波动与风险管理研究”(编号:21XJC790014)。
关键词
金融化
国际农产品价格
国内农产品价格
非线性影响
粮食安全
Financialization
International agricultural product price
China's agricultural product price
Nonlinear effect
Food security
