摘要
鉴于从众心理对光伏投资具有显著影响,文中分析了在不确定的政策环境作用下,用户在光伏投资领域可能产生的从众心理;然后,利用小世界网络模型模拟光伏投资用户的信息交互行为,并在此基础上建立计入从众心理影响的光伏装机容量预测的系统动力学模型。算例部分对中国南方城市进行分布式光伏装机容量预测,并对小世界网络参数进行摄动分析。结果表明,与不计入从众心理影响的系统动力学模型相比,所提方法用于短期和中长期预测均可获得更高的预测精度;同时,随着产业趋于成熟,从众心理对光伏投资的影响呈逐步衰减之势。
Considering herd mentality has a significant impact on photovoltaic investment. This paper analyzes the herd mentality that users may have in the field of photovoltaic investment in the uncertain policy environment, and then uses the small-world network model to simulate the information interaction behavior of photovoltaic investment users. On this basis, a system dynamics model is established for photovoltaic installed capacity forecasting considering the influence of herd mentality. In the calculation example, the distributed photovoltaic installed capacity is forecasted for a city in southern China, and the perturbation analysis of small-world network parameters is made. The results show that, compared with a system dynamics model that does not account for the influence of herd mentality, the proposed method can achieve higher accuracy in both short-term and medium-/long-term forecasting. As the industry matures, the influence of herd mentality on photovoltaic investment is gradually declining.
作者
吴璐阳
辛洁晴
王承民
WU Luyang;XIN Jieqing;WANG Chengmin(Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion,Ministry of Education(Shanghai Jiao Tong University),Shanghai 200240,China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350007,China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第14期83-92,共10页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51777121)。
关键词
分布式光伏
从众心理
系统动力学
光伏补贴
装机容量预测
distributed photovoltaic
herd mentality
system dynamics
photovoltaic subsidy
installed capacity forecasting
