摘要
本文基于欧洲社会调查(European Social Survey,ESS)的数据和逻辑回归模型,对欧盟成员国投票支持主流政党和左、中、右翼民粹政党以及赞同脱欧的选民的动机进行了实证分析。结果表明,经济因素的作用总体上十分有限,各类选民赞成脱欧更多地受到了以移民问题为代表的具体政策的影响,而非在根本上持有反对欧洲一体化的政治理念。这表明,秉持脱欧立场的选民并不完全否认欧洲一体化蕴含的积极意义,而欧盟旨在缓解民粹主义和疑欧主义压力,应在坚持既定目标的基础上更多地聚焦于具体议题的展开。
Based on data from the European Social Survey(ESS) and a logistic regression model, this paper empirically analyzes the motivations of voters in EU member states who voted for mainstream parties as well as left-, center-, and right-wing populist parties and favored EU exit. The regression results show that the economic factor has played a very limited role, and that voters in all categories are more influenced by specific policies such as immigration issues than by fundamentally held political ideas against European integration. This suggests that these voters do not necessarily deny the positive implications of European integration, and that further EU reforms aimed at alleviating the pressure of populism and Euroscepticism should focus more on specific issues while adhering to the stated goals.
作者
贾文华
季哲忱
Jia Wenhua;Ji Zhechen(School of Political Science and Public Administration,China University of Political Science and Law;Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies)
出处
《区域与全球发展》
2022年第4期5-23,153,共20页
Area Studies and Global Development
基金
2021年国家社科基金重点项目“中欧贸易与投资关系的跨学科研究”(批准号21AGJ011)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
民粹主义
疑欧主义
选民偏好
脱欧
Populism
Euroscepticism
voter preference
EU exit
