摘要
文章比较了2009~2020年中、美对CPTPP成员的商品出口特征,利用修正的CMS模型分析了阶段性出口驱动因素及其异质性。研究发现:中美对CPTPP成员的商品出口增势逆转,中国比美国出口市场分布更广泛且产品集中度较高;需求效应是引致中美出口波动的首要因素,供给效应对中国出口增长的正向贡献和对外部需求疲弱的矫正作用均强于美国;中国出口增长模式由“需求规模驱动型”逐渐转变为多成员多产品的“竞争力驱动型”,美国则受制于对加拿大、墨西哥的市场依赖;中国商品出口竞争力对需求调整的动态契合度在CPTPP生效后有所减弱。中国需适应出口动力转换、整合出口增长要素、提升亚太贸易合作话语权等以推进CPTPP谈判。
This paper compares the characteristics of commodity exports of China and the United States to CPTPP members from 2009 to 2020, and uses the modified CMS model to decompose the phased export driving factors and explore their heterogeneity. The research shows that: the growth trend of commodity exports of China and the United States to CPTPP members is reversed with China having a wider distribution of export markets and higher product concentration than the United States;demand effect is the primary factor leading to the export fluctuations in China and the United States. The positive contribution of supply effect to the export growth and the correction effect of supply effect on weak external demand in China are both greater than those in the United States;China’s export growth mode has gradually changed from “demand-scale-driven mode” to “competitiveness-driven mode” of multiple members and products, while the United States has always been constrained by its market dependence on Canada and Mexico;the dynamic fit of export competitiveness of China’s products to demand adjustment has weakened since CPTPP came into effect. China should adapt to the transformation of export power, integrate export growth factors and enhance the voice in Asia-Pacific trade cooperation to promote CPTPP negotiation.
作者
李诚
冯宗宪
LI Cheng;FENG Zong-xian
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第7期42-55,共14页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(19AJY001)
教育部国别与区域研究项目(1199900003)
陕西省重大现实问题研究项目(2020ZDWT19)。
关键词
中美比较
CPTPP
出口增长模式
驱动因素
CMS模型
comparison between China and the United States
CPTPP
export growth mode
driving factor
CMS model
