摘要
探索化工爆炸事故中风险因素网络演化机制,形成有效的预控策略,是实现化工安全的重要举措。该研究首先分析了193份化工爆炸事故调查报告,提出了“风险值”概念,并基于此构建了化工爆炸事故中风险因素网络演化模型。之后,引入“风险因素敏感度”的概念,评价了江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3·21”特别重大爆炸事故的风险因素。结果表明,作业人员的安全知识和技能培训不充分的发生概率较高,敏感度也较高;管理问题发生概率较高,敏感度较低。因此相较于追究事故责任,加强作业人员的安全培训,规范操作流程,是预防化工爆炸事故的有效措施。研究揭示了化工爆炸事故中风险因素的网络演化机制,拓展了风险因素网络演化和风险因素评价理论。
Exploring the evolution mechanism of risk factors in chemical explosion accident and forming effective pre-control strategies are important aspects of achieving chemical safety.A network evolution model of risk factors in chemical explosion accident was built based on the concept of ’risk value’and 193 investigation reports on chemical explosion accidents.Then,the concept of‘risk factor sensitivity’was introduced to evaluate the risk factors of the ’3.21’major explosion accident of Jiangsu Xiangshui Tianjiayi Chemical Co.,Ltd.The results show that the operator’s inadequate safety knowledge and skill training have a high probability of occurrence and a high sensitivity.Although the occurrence probability of management defect is high,its sensitivity is weak.Therefore,strengthening the safety training of operating personnel and standardizing the operation process are more effective than apportionment blame in the prevention of chemical explosion accident.The contribution is revealing the evolution mechanism of risk factors in chemical explosion accident,which enriching and expanding the risk factor network evolution and risk factor evaluation theory.
作者
郭中华
姜卉
巩畅
GUO Zhonghua;JIANG Hui;GONG Chang(School of Engineering Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Economics Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《工业工程与管理》
北大核心
2022年第3期139-147,共9页
Industrial Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71673260)。
关键词
化工爆炸事故
风险因素
演化模型
复杂网络
敏感度
chemical explosion accident
risk factor
evolution model
complex network
risk factor sensitivity
