摘要
为了达到碳达峰、碳中和的目标要求,北方某区域需要准确计量和分析区域内重点建筑项目和建筑运行的碳排放。本文首先把重点项目的建筑面积或道路长度按一定的系数折算成相应的碳排放,然后利用一批项目的月电量数据来拟合三种类型项目的电量累积分布S曲线,用电量的累计分布来模拟碳排放的累计分布,并把重点项目的碳排放分摊到项目周期中的每个月中,最后分别按月累计区域三个县最近几年的碳排放,得到该区域各个县碳排放的趋势等规律。在计算区域建筑运行的天然气供暖碳排放时,拟合岭回归模型,将用户在非供暖季节的用电量、建筑类型等数据用来预测用户在供暖季节的用气碳排放。使用本文所述的方法,可以用电力和公共数据合理有效地计量国内一般区域的建筑碳排放。
In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak,carbon neutrality,an area in the north needs to accurately measure and analyze the carbon emissions of key construction projects and building operations in the region.In this paper,we first convert the gross leasable area or road length of key projects into the corresponding carbon emissions by a certain coefficient.Then,we use the monthly electricity data of a batch of projects to fit the S-curve of cumulative electricity distribution of the three types of projects,the cumulative distribution of electricity is used to simulate the cumulative distribution of carbon emissions,and the carbon emissions of key projects are allocated to each month in the project cycle.Finally,the carbon emission of the three counties in the region is accumulated by month in recent years,and the trend of carbon emission of each county in the region is obtained.When calculating the carbon emission of natural gas heating in regional buildings,ridge regression model is used to predict the carbon emission of natural gas heating in non-heating season.Using the method described in this paper,it is possible to use electricity and public data to reasonably and effectively measure carbon emissions from buildings in general regions of China.
作者
张伟
刘斌
翟杰
沈澄泓
高亮
田浩蕴
ZHANG Wei;LIU Bin;ZHAI Jie;SHEN Chenghong;GAO Liang;TIAN Haoyun(Beijing China-Power Information Technology Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100192,China;Zhejiang Fanhai Zhixing Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310052,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《电力大数据》
2022年第3期74-82,共9页
Power Systems and Big Data
关键词
碳排放
重点建筑项目
建筑运行
埃斯曲线
回归模型
carbon emission
key construction projects
building operation
curve
regression model
