摘要
在研究构建残差修正后的GM(1,1)模型基础上,基于1995-2015年安徽省人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据,预测2020-2050年安徽省乡村人口变动趋势。结果显示,安徽乡村人口规模将急剧萎缩,预计2030年降至2078.25万人,2050年进一步降至1262.03万人;城市人口吸纳效应持续发挥,2030年人口城镇化率将从2020年的58.33%提升至72.63%。分析了未来乡村地区将面临空心化程度加深,劳动力流失削减乡村发展潜力,老龄化向乡村养老保障施压问题。提出推进乡村振兴的过程中,要积极探索多渠道引流回流机制,提升乡村劳动力素质水平,完善新时代乡村建设与养老医疗保障服务的对策建议。
Based on the data of 1995-2015 Census and 1%sample survey in Anhui Province,this study constructs the GM(1,1)model after residual correction,and predicts the changing trend of rural population in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2050.The results show that the rural population in Anhui will shrink sharply from 20782500 in 2030 to 12620300 in 2050,and the absorption effect of urban population will continue to play,and the urbanization rate will increase from 58.33%in 2020 to 72.63%in 2030.The study finds that in the future,rural areas will face the problems of a deeper degree of hollowing out,labor loss reducing rural development potential,and aging putting pressure on rural old-age security.Multi-channel should be actively explored.In the process of rural revitalization,we should actively explore multi-channel drainage and reflux mechanism,improve the quality of rural labor force,and improve rural construction and old-age medical security services in the new era.
作者
马婕菲
蔡弘
MA Jiefei;CAI Hong(Urban Management Research Center,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《宿州学院学报》
2022年第8期35-40,45,共7页
Journal of Suzhou University
基金
教育部人文社科青年项目(20YJC840002)
安徽省社科联创新发展研究项目(2019CX021)。
