摘要
[研究目的]基于认知心理学视角,情报分析过程本质上是思维活动过程。竞争性假设分析法虽有助于克服认知局限,但也无法确保总能够得出正确结论。深入探究认知对该方法运用效果的影响,对于准确把握认知特点、挖掘分析失误的认知根源、优化情报分析工作意义重大。[研究方法]借鉴认知心理学相关理论,结合竞争性假设分析法的步骤与案例,从正反两方面剖析认知现象对该方法运用效果的影响,进而探究其原因。[研究结论]认知既有助于生成多样化假设、丰富证据内容,但也会造成假设遗漏、证据曲解和赋值偏差,而思维模型的固有弊端、过分倚重直接经验的思维倾向及概率评估中的“锚定”偏见是主要诱因,在运用竞争性假设分析法时应把握认知特点,遵循相关原则,趋利避害。
[Research purpose]From the perspective of cognitive psychology,the process of intelligence analysis is essentially a mental process.Although analysis of competitive hypotheses can help overcome cognitive limitations,it can not always yield the right answer.Exploring the influence of cognition on the application of this method is of great significance to grasp cognitive characteristics accurately,excavate the cognitive roots of analysis failures and improve intelligence analysis.[Research method]Referring to the relevant theories of cognitive psychology,combined with the steps and cases of analysis of competitive hypotheses,this paper analyzes the influence of cognitive phenomena on the effectiveness of the analysis of competitive hypotheses method from both positive and negative aspects,and then explores the reasons.[Research conclusion]While cognition can help generate diverse hypotheses and enrich evidence,it can also lead to hypothesis omissions,misinterpretation of evidence,and evaluation deviation.The inherent drawbacks of mindset,the tendency to overestimate direct experience,and the Anchoring bias in estimating probabilities are main contributing factors.Some principles should be followed in the use of analysis of competitive hypotheses.
作者
马之璇
汪明敏
Ma Zhixuan;Wang Mingmin(Luoyang Campus,Information Engineering University,Luoyang 471003)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期24-28,61,共6页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
全军军事类研究生资助项目重点课题“开源情报视域下兰德公司涉华军事成果的生产与传播研究”(编号:JY2021B089)研究成果。
关键词
竞争性假设分析法
情报分析
情报素材
认知心理学
认知现象
认知偏见
认知盲点
analysis of competitive hypotheses
intelligence analysis
intelligence material
cognitive psychology
cognition phenomema
cognitive biases
cognitive blind spots
