摘要
利用2017—2019年朔黄铁路水害记录及其沿线40个气象观测站的逐5 min降水量资料,分析水害及降水分布特征,统计连续降水量、1 h最大降水量和24 h降水量3个降水因子,应用均值-标准差法和极大值法,制定平原和山区路段铁路水害的无警戒、出巡警戒、限速警戒、封锁警戒雨量阈值。结果表明:朔黄铁路水害主要发生在7—8月,水害发生时降水的持续时间多在48 h以内;引发铁路水害的降水类型主要为局地暴雨、短时强降水、连续性降水,平原路段铁路水害主要由局地暴雨引发,山区路段主要诱因是连续性降水;平原路段出巡警戒准确率达88.5%,空报率为11.5%,限速警戒准确率达100%,山区路段出巡警戒准确率达88.9%,空报率为11.1%,针对平原和山区铁路路段制定的雨量警戒阈值,可为铁路安全行车和高效调度提供参考依据。
Based on the record data of water disasters and the 5-min precipitation of 40 meteorological observation stations along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway from 2017 to 2019,the characteristics of railway water disasters and precipitation distribution were ana⁃lyzed,then the three precipitation factors including continuous precipitation,the hourly maximum precipitation and the 24-hour precipi⁃tation were counted,the rainfall warning thresholds of no warning,patrol warning,speed limit warning and blockade warning of railway sections in plains and mountainous areas were formulated by using the mean-standard deviation method and the maximum value method.The results show that the water disasters of the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway mainly occurred in July and August,and the dura⁃tion of precipitation was mostly within 48 hours.The precipitation types causing water disasters were mainly local rainstorm,short-time heavy precipitation and long-duration precipitation,the railway water disasters in plain sections were mainly caused by local rainstorm,but the main cause of mountainous sections was long-duration precipitation.For railway section in the plain,the accuracy rate of patrol warning was 88.5%,the false rate was 11.5%,the accuracy rate of speed limit warning was 100%,for the railway section in the moun⁃tainous,the accuracy of patrols warning was 88.9%and the false rate was 11.1%.The rainfall warning threshold for railway sections in plains and mountainous areas could provide reference for safe running and efficient operation of railway.
作者
张娣
曲晓黎
张中杰
张金满
王洁
尤琦
ZHANG Di;QU Xiaoli;ZHANG Zhongjie;ZHANG Jinman;WANG Jie;YOU Qi(Public Meteorological Service Centre of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2022年第4期677-682,共6页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
河北省重点研发计划项目(19275413D)
河北省气象局科研开发项目(19ky26)共同资助。
关键词
铁路水害
降水分型
均值-标准差法
雨量警戒
railway water disasters
precipitation classification
mean-standard deviation method
rainfall warning
