摘要
针对新冠疫情影响下举办北京冬奥会潜在的社会风险,采用结构方程模糊评估模型从公共安全、社会心理、民生、政治、经济5个方面对风险进行评定,为后续赛事举办提供借鉴。首先基于相关专家、学者和部分北京市民的问卷调查数据,运用结构方程模型确定各个风险指标的权重,再运用模糊综合评价模型对疫情影响下举办北京冬奥会潜在的社会风险进行综合评估。结果表明:疫情影响下北京冬奥会外溢社会风险评估等级为中等;公共安全风险、民生风险、政治风险和经济风险均为中风险水平,其中政治风险升级为高风险的可能性最大,处于轻警边缘,需要随时观察。
In order to provide reference for subsequent events,SEM-FCEM was used to assess the social risks from five aspects that may be triggered by the Beijing Winter Olympic Games in the background of COVID-19.And the five risks are public security risk,social psychological risk,people′s livelihood risk,political risk and economic risk.Firstly,a questionnaire survey was conducted among relevant experts,scholars and some Beijing citizens,and SEM was used to determine the weight of each risk index.Then FCEM was used to comprehensively evaluate the social risks that may be caused by holding the Beijing Winter Olympic Games under the influence of the epidemic situation.The results show that the social risk assessment level of spillover of Beijing Winter Olympic Games under the influence of epidemic situation is medium;public security risk,people′s livelihood risk,political risk and economic risk are all at the medium risk level.Among them,political risk is the most likely to upgrade to high risk.It is on the edge of light police and needs to be observed at any time.
作者
方丹辉
胡紫瑶
闫岩
FANG Danhui;HU Ziyao;YAN Yan(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;不详)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
2022年第4期513-518,532,共7页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划(2021YFF0306000).
