摘要
目的通过对气候变化下丹参潜在适宜生境的研究,为其规范化种植及资源可持续利用提供依据。方法利用最大熵模型对不同气候情景下丹参全球潜在适宜区分布及其影响因子进行分析预测。结果最冷季平均温度和最暖季降水量是影响丹参分布的关键因子。当最冷季平均温度<-10.0℃时,丹参存在概率<30.0%;最暖季降水量>328.6 mm,其存在概率≥60.0%。当前丹参潜在适宜区以中国为主,罗马尼亚东北部、乌克兰西南部、俄罗斯西南部和东南部亦有分布。在3种具有代表性的未来气候情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)下,丹参潜在适宜生境仍以中国中部和东部地区为主,总适宜生境面积增加并呈北部扩张、南部收缩的北移趋势。结论丹参分布受气候变化影响较大,未来丹参潜在适宜区有北移趋势。本研究为丹参栽培地区的选择和条件的设定提供参考依据,可避免非适宜区盲目引种、扩种,有利于提高丹参的产量和品质,同时对其野生资源的保护及蕴藏量的估算有重要意义。
Objective To provide the reference for standardized planting and resource protection and utilization of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge through the study on its potential suitable habitat under climate change.Methods The maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was employed to predict the potential suitable habitat in global terms of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge under different climatic scenarios and analyze the key impact factors in environment.Results It was identified that mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter were the key factors shaping the distribution of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge.When the mean temperature of coldest quarter was under-10.0℃,the probability of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge presence was below 30.0%;when the precipitation of warmest quarter was above 328.6 mm,its existence probability was 60.0%or more.At present,potential suitable areas of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge are mainly in China,with a little part in northeast Romania,southwest Ukraine,southwest and southeast of Russia.Under the three typical climate scenarios in future(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585),the potential distribution of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge will be still mainly in central and eastern China.The total suitable region is on the increase,with a tendency to move northward-southern contraction and northern expansion.Conclusion The distribution of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge would be greatly affected by climate change,which show a northward trend.The results of this study can provide a reference for the selection of planting areas and the setting of cultivation conditions of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge,which can avoid blind introduction and expansion in unsuitable habitats.These are conducive to improving the yield and quality of Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge,and are also of great significance for the protection and estimation of its wild resources.
作者
邱晓萍
张懿
张咏梅
QIU Xiaoping;ZHANG Yi;ZHANG Yongmei(China-Croatia“Belt and Road”Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services,Chengdu Institute of Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《中国中医药信息杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2022年第9期1-10,共10页
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine
基金
科技部“国家科技资源共享服务平台”项目(2005DKA21401)。
