摘要
一个经济体城乡二元经济转型过程伴随着人口的转变。当前我国进入到二元经济转型中后期,人口转变影响着劳动力配置、资本形成与技术创新,进而关系到社会主义现代化建设。在系统梳理新中国成立以来二元经济转型三大阶段人口转变历程的基础上,概括总结各阶段人口再生产类型、人口年龄结构与城乡人口分布特征。我国二元经济转型的特殊性对人口转变产生了深入影响:转型滞后于工业化导致农业人口非农化转移受阻,转型特殊路径致使“人口红利”“结构红利”利用受限,非永久性迁移导致老龄人口城乡分布倒置差异加剧。立足新发展阶段,我国人口转变面临着农村人口老龄化日益严重、新生代农民工市民化深度融入较难、生育率持续偏低等挑战,从着力提高农村养老服务供给水平、全方位增强农民工社会融入能力、健全完善多阶段生育支持体系等方面提出应对之策。
The dual-economic transition of an economy is also the process of its demographic transition.At present,China is in the Lewis transition stage.Population transition affects labor force allocation,capital formation and techno⁃logical progress,and further relates to the realization process of urban-rural dual-economic transition.Systemically sorting out the development course of demographic transition in three historical periods of dual-economic transition:before reform and opening up,from 1978 to Lewis’s first turning point and Lewis’s turning stage,this paper scientifi⁃cally summarizes the transformation characteristics of population reproduction type and urban and rural population dis⁃tribution in each stage.The particularity of China’s dual-economic transition has a profound influence on the demo⁃graphic transition:population shift ahead of dual-economic transition,dual-economic transition lag non-agricultural sectors is blocked,agricultural population special dual-economic transition path,“demographic dividend”and“struc⁃ture dividend”using limited,non-permanent migration led to increasing aging of population inversion between urban and rural areas.At present,China’s dual-economic transition has entered the middle and late stage,to meet the chal⁃lenge of population transformation in the new era,to adhere to the principle of people-centered development,we need to implement the strategy of healthy aging,steadily promote citizenization of migrant agricultural population and im⁃prove the birth support system.
作者
孙亚南
张桂文
SUN Ya-nan;ZHANG Gui-wen(School of Economics,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun Jilin 130117,China;School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang Liaoning 110036,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期24-36,共13页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目“二元经济转型视角下中国新型城乡关系的构建研究”(21ZDA053)。
关键词
二元经济转型
人口转变
人口再生产类型
城镇化
人口老龄化
Dual-economic Transition
Demographic Transition
Types of Population Reproduction
Urbanization
Population Aging
