摘要
为降低直升机安全风险事件发生的概率,研究直升机安全运行风险管理中风险因素的变化规律和不同风险因素间的耦合碰撞机理。不同的风险因素可能相互作用,产生新的风险或影响系统的风险值。当风险值超过系统的风险阈值时,就会形成安全风险事件。使用N-K风险耦合模型研究了导致民用直升机安全风险事件的风险因素之间的耦合关系。首先,对影响直升机安全运行的风险因素进行识别,并将其分为人、机、环、管四类。考虑不同的风险耦合方式,建立相应的风险耦合模型。然后,用MATLAB编程进行迭代计算和分析,得到了单因素、双因素和多因素的风险耦合值。该值越大,证明系统内的风险越大,从而确定直升机运行安全事件的主要风险因素。最后,对2004—2019年我国直升机运行安全事件的风险因素进行分析,结果表明,参与风险耦合的因素越多,安全事件形成的概率越大,安全事件形成的概率与风险耦合值成正比。此外,当人为因素参与风险耦合时,其他因素的风险值进一步增大。研究结果可为我国民航直升机运行安全风险事件的防控提供理论和实践支持,从而促进我国航空工业的发展。
To decrease the probability of helicopter safety events,the variation of risk factors,and the coupling collision mechanism between different risk factors in helicopter risk management should be studied.Different risk factors may interact and generate new risks or affect the risk value of the system.When the value of risk exceeds the risk threshold of the system,a risk event is formed.In this work,the N-K risk coupling model is used to study the coupling relationship of the risk factors that lead to civil helicopter safety incidents.Firstly,the risk factors affecting the safe operation of helicopters are identified and classified into four parts(i.e.human,aircraft,environment,and management).Considered different risk factors,the risk coupling models of various coupling vibration modes are established.Then the models are iteratively calculated and analyzed by MATLAB.The risk coupling degree values of single-factor,two-factor,and multi-factor are obtained by the calculation.The system risk increases with increasing the degree value.The main risk control factors of helicopter operation safety incidents are also determined.Finally,the risk factors of helicopter operation safety incidents that occurred in China from 2004 to 2019 are analyzed.The results show that the probability of safety incidents is directly proportional to the coupling value of risk factors and it increases with the number of factors involved in risk coupling.Besides,the risk value of other factors further increases when human factors and environmental factors are coupled.The results can provide theoretical and practical support for the prevention and control of helicopter operation safety accidents in China,to promote the development of China’s aviation industry.
作者
赵赶超
雷晶晶
ZHAO Gan-chao;LEI Jing-jing(Department of Flight Technology,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,Sichuan,China;Graduate Department,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,Sichuan,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期1783-1789,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
中国民航飞行学院面上项目(J2021-015)
中国民航飞行学院青年基金项目(Q2020-029)。
