摘要
针对突发事故应急物资需求随事故的动态演变不断变化,且单一需求模型预测精度较低的问题,在利用时空转换法将具有汇聚能力的单突发事故出救点问题转化为具有特殊性的确定多突发事故出救点资源调运问题的基础上,利用脉冲需求波动函数和需求预测式,构建以不同的应急需求点物资未被满足需求累积之和最小为目标的物资调度模型。通过对模型进行求解,得出突发事故应急物资调度的最优方案,其目标最优值比仅考虑脉冲需求的最优值小11%。
This paper studies the changing demand for emergency supplies along with the dynamic development of a catastrophe, as a single demand forecasting model cannot make accurate forecasting easily. The succor points and demand points in a catastrophe are taken as the research object. A spatial-temporal data model of supply and demand is constructed according to the characteristics of time convergence of emergency supplies in the contingency response process. Thus a spatial-temporal conversion method is used to convert the problem of succor points in a catastrophe with convergence capability into the problem of resource distribution and dispatch at determined succor points in a set of catastrophes with a specialty. Since the demand information about emergency supplies in the real-life contingency response process is changing along with the dynamic development of a catastrophe, the demand can be great or none at a certain moment. To minimize the sum of unmet demand for emergency supplies to different stricken sites, a model with emergency supplies scheduling is constructed using the pulse demand fluctuation function and demand forecasting. Finally, a simulation comparison between the model in this paper and the model taking account of only pulse demand is conducted. The results show that the number of emergency succor points derived from both models is the same. However, the sum of unmet demands from emergency supplies scheduling in the model in this paper is 31 less than that in the model taking account of only pulse demand. Therefore, in this paper, the sum of unmet demands for emergency supplies to different stricken sites derived from the model is small, indicating that the model can better satisfy the victims’ demand for emergency supplies, and also provide a better solution to emergency supplies scheduling. It is a useful approach to optimize the distribution and dispatching of emergency supplies.
作者
郑万波
董银环
吴燕清
夏云霓
ZHENG Wan-bo;DONG Yin-huan;WU Yan-qing;XIA Yun-ni(Faculty of Science,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Faculty of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;College of Resources and Safety,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China;School of Computer Science,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期2064-2069,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(62162036)。
关键词
公共安全
突发事故
物资调度
时空转换
脉冲需求
需求预测模型
public safety
sudden accident
supplies scheduling
spatio-temporal conversion
pulse demand
demand forecasting model
