摘要
为了监测厦门市松材线虫病发生趋势,建立有效的防控技术措施体系。2011—2020年采用5种防控技术措施(喷施噻虫啉化学防治、释放管氏肿腿蜂或白绿僵菌生物防治、清理枯死松树、设置立式诱木和挂设松墨天牛诱捕器)进行松材线虫病防治和监测,并统计了诱捕松墨天牛数量和松材线虫病发生面积,应用判别分析和灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)对获取的数据进行分析。结果表明:(1)单一的松材线虫病防控技术措施及诱捕松墨天牛数量因素与松材线虫病发生面积无显著相关性,但多个技术措施综合作用对松材线虫病发生面积有显著影响,其影响因素重要性依次为挂设诱捕器数量、喷施噻虫啉化学防治面积、管氏肿腿蜂或白绿僵菌生物防治面积、清理枯死松树数量、诱捕松墨天牛数量、设置立式诱木数量。(2)松材线虫病发生面积呈现出一定周期性和阶段性(每5年为一个周期),每个周期内变化幅度又分为2个阶段,从第二周期内变化幅度开始收窄。(3)通过建立松材线虫病发生面积预测模型,预测2021年松材线虫病发生面积为267.956 hm^(2),比2020年有所增加,符合第三个周期起始年的特征。因此,厦门市松材线虫病发生发展具有一定的规律性,综合防控技术措施有显著效果。
In order to monitor the occurrence trend of pine wilt disease(PWD)in Xiamen,an effective control technology and measure system was established.From 2011 to 2020,five prevention and control technical measures were adopted to control and monitor PWD,and the quantities of trapping adults of Monochamus alternatus and the occurrence area of PWD were counted.The acquired data were analyzed by applying discriminant analysis and grey system prediction model GM(1,1).The results showed that:(1)There was no significant correlation between the single technical measures of PWD prevention and control and the quantities of trapping adults of Monochamus alternatus.The importance of the influencing factors was the quantities of hanging traps of Monochamus alternatus,controlling areas of Monochamus alternatus by spraying thiacloprid power,controlling areas of Monochamus alternatus by using Scleroderma guani or Beauveria bassiana or Metarhizium anisopliae,quantities of cleaning up dead pine trees,quantities of trapping adults of Monochamus alternatus,quantities of setting up vertical baited-woods.(2)The occurrence area of PWD showed a certain periodicity and periodicity(every 5 years was a cycle),and the change range in each cycle was divided into two stages,and the change range began to narrow from the second cycle.(3)By establishing a prediction model for the occurrence area of PWD,it is predicted that the occurrence area of PWD in 2021 will be 267.956 hm^(2),an increase from 2020,which is in line with the characteristics of the start year of the third cycle.Therefore,the occurrence and development of PWD in Xiamen has a certain regularity,and the comprehensive prevention and control technical measures have a significant effect.
作者
杜瑞卿
张华峰
张征田
许章华
王彩霞
Du Ruiqing;Zhang Huafeng;Zhang Zhengtian;Xu Zhanghua;Wang Caixia(Nanyang Normal University,Nanyang 473061,P.R.China;Xiamen Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station;Nanyang Normal University;Fuzhou University)
出处
《东北林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第9期135-139,共5页
Journal of Northeast Forestry University
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071300)
南阳师范学院校级科研项目(STP)
南阳师范学院开放实验项目(SYKF2022)
福建省林业科学研究项目(闽林科便函[2020]9号)。
关键词
松材线虫
防治措施
判别分析
灰色系统预测模型
Bursaphelenchus xylophilus
Prevention and control measures
Discriminant analysis
Grey system prediction model
