摘要
水资源匮乏问题越发严重的背景下,电力部门对水资源需求仍不断增加。该研究基于世界资源研究所(WRI)开发的“水道”水风险地图集定义了煤电机组耗水压力指数(煤电机组耗水量与当地可用水资源总量的比值),并基于微观煤电机组数据库,在全球2℃温升目标下考虑机组是否提前退役以及有无新增装机两种情况,设定了4种不同的煤电逐步退出情景来评估它们对中国煤电机组耗水量及耗水压力空间分布变化的影响。分析结果表明:①2019年中国煤电机组总耗水量约48.29亿t,全国有近1/3的省份耗水压力为极高等级,且主要集中在黄河中下游及淮河流域等北方地区。②煤电机组耗水量与煤电有无新增容量趋势一致,在无新增装机的S0、S2情景下,机组耗水量呈持续下降趋势,而有新增装机的S1、S3情景下,机组耗水量于2025年达峰后开始下降。③碳中和目标约束下煤电装机逐步退出,随着煤电耗水量不断减少,耗水压力将逐年减弱,且高耗水压力区逐渐向长江、黄河中下游等东部地区汇集,最终于2050年前后煤电耗水压力指数均降为低等级。④若在现役机组的基础上无新增装机且煤电机组因碳约束部分提前退役,则到2050年可累计节约近171.07亿t水,按现行水价折合约558亿元人民币;若在现有基础上严控煤电新增,则到2050年煤电机组提前退役可比自然退役情况下累计减少共557.39亿t的水资源消耗,约1817亿元人民币。依据研究结果认为,提高燃煤电厂的水资源利用效率,合理制定远期的煤电有序退出路线图,有利于从根本上降低煤电发展对水资源的影响。
In the context of increasingly serious water resource problems,the demand for water resources in the power sector is still growing.Based on Aqueducts global water risk maps developed by the World Resources Institute(WRI),this article defines the water consumption stress indicator(i.e.,the ratio of water consumption of coal power units to the total available local water resources)for coal power units and sets up four different coal power phase-out scenarios to assess their impact on the spatial distribution of water consumption and consumption stress in China based on a microscopic database of coal power units,considering both the early retirement of units and the presence or absence of new installations under the global 2℃temperature rise target.The results show that:①The total water consumption of Chinas coal power units in 2019 was about 4829 million tons,with nearly 1/3 of the provinces having extremely high levels of water consumption stress,which was mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River Basin,as well as other northern regions.②The trend of coal power water consumption is consistent with the trend of coal power with and without new capacity,with a continuous decreasing trend in S0 and S2 scenarios without new installed capacity and a decreasing trend in S1 and S3 scenarios with new installed capacity,where coal power water consumption starts to decline after reaching its peak in 2025.③With the phase-out of coal power under the carbon neutrality target constraint,the water consumption stress will weaken year by year as the water consumption of coal power continues to decrease,and the high stress area will gradually converge to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River,and other eastern regions;the water consumption stress indicator will eventually reduce to low-level stress around 2050.④If no new units are installed on top of the existing ones and coal units are retired early due to carbon constraint,the cumulative savings will be nearly 17.107 billion tons of water by 2050,equivalent to about RMB 55.8 billion yuan If the addition of coal power is strictly controlled,the cumulative reduction in water consumption of coal units by 2050 will be 55.739 billion tons,or about RMB 181.7 billion yuan,compared to the natural retirement scenario.The policy recommendations of this study are as follows:the efficiency of water resources utilization should be improved,and a long-term roadmap for the orderly withdrawal of coal power should be reasonably developed to fundamentally reduce the impact of coal power development on the ecological environment.
作者
袁家海
付珊
YUAN Jiahai;FU Shan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low‑Carbon Development(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第9期132-142,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“碳中和下煤电退出路径、影响评估及公正转型机制设计”(批准号:72173043)
洛克菲勒兄弟基金会项目“煤电退出的经济社会影响和公正转型政策研究”(批准号:21-200)。
关键词
2℃温升目标
水资源
耗水压力
煤电转型
2℃temperature rise target
water resource
water consumption stress
coal power phase‑out
