摘要
目的评估新型冠状病毒Omicron变异株在北京市现有防控措施下的传播力,为做好疫情防控工作提供参考依据。方法收集北京市2022年3月7-25日报告的78例具有明确传播链的Omicron变异株感染者信息,分别采用Gamma和Weibull分布拟合潜伏期和序列间隔时间,使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗算法估计实时再生数(R_(t))。结果Omicron变异株感染者潜伏期M(Q_(1),Q_(3))为4.0(3.0,6.0)d,序列间隔时间3.0(2.0,5.0)d,序列间隔时间在未完成和已完成全程疫苗接种感染者中M(Q_(1),Q_(3))分别为2.0(1.0,4.0)d和4.0(2.0,6.0)d(Z=-2.12,P=0.034),儿童和成年人感染者分别为2.0(1.5,3.0)d和4.0(2.0,6.0)d(Z=-2.02,P=0.044),差异均有统计学意义。本轮疫情Rt初始值为4.98(95%CI:2.22~9.04)。结论与既往Delta变异株相比,北京市Omicron变异株的传播力较强,应持续做好常态化疫情防控和新型冠状病毒疫苗接种工作,关注儿童易感人群。
Objective To evaluate the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV Omicron variant under the current prevention and control strategy in Beijing,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19.Methods The information of 78 Omicron variant infection cases involved in clear transmission chains in Beijing during 7-25 March,2022 were collected,the incubation period and serial interval of the disease were fitted by using Gamma and Weibull distribution.Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the time-varying reproduction number(R_(t)).Results The median of the incubation period(Q_(1),Q_(3))of Omicron variant infection was 4.0(3.0,6.0)days,and the serial interval was 3.0(2.0,5.0)days.The median of the serial interval(Q_(1),Q_(3))was 2.0(1.0,4.0)days in unvaccinated cases and 4.0(2.0,6.0)days in vaccinated cases(Z=-2.12,P=0.034),and 2.0(1.5,3.0)days in children and 4.0(2.0,6.0)days in adults,respectively(Z=-2.02,P=0.044),the differences were significant.The mean of Rt was estimated to be 4.98(95%CI:2.22-9.04)for Omicron variant in this epidemic.Conclusion Omicron variant has stronger transmissibility compared with Delta variant.It is necessary to strengthen the routine prevention and control COVID-19,promote the vaccination and pay close attention to susceptible population,such as children.
作者
杜婧
王佳敏
王晶
高燕琳
庞星火
李刚
Du Jing;Wang Jiamin;Wang Jing;Gao Yanlin;Pang Xinghuo;Li Gang(Department of Information and Statistics,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China;School of Public Health,China Medical University,Shenyang 110122,China;Central Office,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China)
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第9期1364-1369,共6页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
首都卫生发展科研专项(2021-1G-3013)。
