摘要
冷战结束后欧洲地区维持了近三十年的总体和平,伴随着俄乌冲突的爆发而彻底回归到权力政治时代。北约是理解欧洲安全动态的关键,欧洲的和平由北约强大的军事力量支撑,美欧与俄罗斯之间的竞争与对抗则与北约扩张紧密相关。冷战结束后,北约不仅继续存在,而且在成员规模、行动空间和功能领域三个方面不断扩展。关于北约的存续与扩张,现有研究主要从北约的制度属性、成员国共享的价值理念、美国维持霸权的需要三个角度加以解释,但都无法准确理解后冷战时代北约扩张的全过程。作为一个具有集体安全属性的军事联盟,北约创建与维持的动力来源于成员国面临的安全威胁与联盟安全供给能力之间的匹配。冷战时期,北约与成员国将苏联视为紧迫威胁,由此建立起安全供需平衡。尽管苏联解体破坏了这种平衡,但北约独特的制度设计赋予其高度的灵活性,提供了双方在其他安全问题上重新形成供需平衡的可能性。在后冷战时代,族群冲突、恐怖主义等非传统安全问题凸显,对俄罗斯的担忧仍然存在,这些因素重塑了成员国的威胁认知,推动北约通过不断扩张来调整安全供给能力,以匹配成员国的安全威胁需求。北约扩张的过程由战略理念、机构改革、能力建设和情报共享四个部分构成,核心目标在于适应新兴威胁的挑战。伴随北约将俄罗斯和中国定位为主要竞争对手,以2022年马德里峰会为标志的新一轮扩张也由此展开,这将引起全球范围的安全困境。
The European region,which maintained overall peace for nearly 30 years after the end of the Cold War has returned to the era of power politics following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)is the key player to consider,in understanding the dynamics of European security.Peace in Europe is underpinned by NATO’s strong military power,and the competition and confrontation between Western countries and Russia are closely linked to NATO’s expansion.After the end of the Cold War,NATO not only continued to exist,but also expanded in three aspects:membership size,operational space and functional areas.The literature mainly explains the existence and expansion of NATO from three perspectives:the institutional attributes of NATO,the common values shared by its members,and the need of the United States to maintain its hegemony.Nevertheless,these approaches cannot accurately explain the whole process of NATO expansion in the post-Cold War era.As a military alliance with collective security attributes,NATO has been created and is maintained by the match between the security threats faced by its members and the alliance’s security supply capability.During the Cold War,NATO and its members regarded the Soviet Union as an imminent threat,which created a supplydemand balance as regards security.Although the collapse of the Soviet Union disrupted this balance,NATO’s unique institutional design gives it a high degree of flexibility,offering the possibility of a new supply-demand balance on other security issues.In the post-Cold War era,nontraditional security issues,such as ethnic conflicts and terrorism have become prominent,and concerns about Russia still exist.These factors have reshaped the threat perception of member countries and have pushed NATO to adjust its security supply capacity to match security threats through continuous expansion.The process of NATO expansion consists of four parts:redefining strategic concepts,reforming institutional frameworks,building capacity and sharing intelligence.The core objective of these efforts is to adapt to the challenges of emerging threats.Given that NATO positions Russia and China as main competitors,a new round of expansion,marked by the 2022 Madrid summit,will raise security dilemmas across the globe.
作者
魏冰
刘丰
WEI Bing;LIU Feng
出处
《外交评论（外交学院学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期19-52,I0001,I0002,共36页
Foreign Affairs Review
关键词
威胁认知
安全供给
北约扩张
联盟
欧洲安全
大国竞争
threat perception
security supply
NATO expansion
alliance
European security
great power competition
