摘要
基于随机模拟进行油田开发规划二步决策优选方法体系研究。第一步建立多目标优化模型,采用智能算法求解模型给出开发方案的帕累托解集(Pareto),考虑不确定因素对开发规划方案的影响,利用随机模拟给出方案完成给定目标产量的风险,利用模糊聚类方法构建评价开发规划方案的指标体系;第二步采用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重并基于逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)方法对开发规划方案进行综合评价,应用欧氏距离计算各方案与理想解贴近度,得到理想解最优方案。实现通过二步决策优选方法为开发规划方案提供最优决策依据,应用于某油气田开发规划实施效果可信,操作性强。
In this paper,the two-step decision-making optimization method system of oilfield development planning based on stochastic simulation is studied,and an example is applied.The first step is to establish a multi-objective optimization model,and use the intelligent algorithm to solve the model to give the Pareto solution set of the development plan.Secondly,considering the influence of uncertain factors on the development planning plan,the risk of completing the given target output of the plan is given by using random simulation.Finally,the index system for evaluating the development planning plan is constructed by using fuzzy clustering method.In the second step,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to determine the index weight,and the development planning scheme is comprehensively evaluated based on the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The Euclidean distance is used to calculate the closeness between each scheme and the ideal solution,and the optimal scheme of the ideal solution is obtained.Finally,the two-step decision-making optimization method provides the optimal decision-making basis for the development planning scheme,which is applied to the implementation of the development planning of an oil and gas field with reliable effect and strong operability.
作者
李婷
LI Ting(Petroleum Exploration&Production Research Institute of SINOPEC,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《世界石油工业》
2022年第5期39-45,共7页
World Petroleum Industry
基金
中国石油化工股份有限公司科技部项目“海外开发投入单元划分与效益产量模型研究及应用”(P19020-3)。
关键词
油田开发
随机模拟
二步决策
逼近理想解排序法
欧氏距离
理想解优选方案
oilfield development
stochastic simulation
two step decision optimization method
technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)
Euclidean distance
ideal solution
