摘要
水资源-水环境-社会经济复杂系统韧性研究是规避外来冲击和挑战、保持区域和平稳定发展的重要途径之一。借鉴投影寻踪和微分方程的思想构建了一种新的韧性调控模型,对长江经济带整体和省级尺度1999—2018年间的水资源-水环境-社会经济复杂系统韧性及其调控因素进行了评估。结果表明:长江经济带韧性水平以2011年为突变点,2011年之前较为稳定,2011年之后稳步提升;影响韧性特征的因素在江西省和云南省为自然禀赋条件,在上海市为科学技术水平和政府宏观政策,而其他地区则经历了两者之间的过渡;韧性的优控因素排序为适应性>恢复性>抵抗性,且逐渐从抵抗性转移为适应性。
To avoid external shocks and challenges and to maintain regional peace and stable development,the research on the resilience of the water resources-water environment-social economy complex system is one of the important ways.Based on the ideas of projection pursuit and differential equation,this study constructs a new resilience evaluation model to evaluate the resilience of the water resources-water environment-social economy complex system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1999 to 2018.Taking the level of resilience of Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2011 as turning point,the results confirmed that the level of resilience maintain stable before 2011 and steady improve after 2011.The findings also revealed that the factor affecting the level of resilience in Jiangxi and Yunnan was natural resource endowment conditions,the factors affecting the level of resilience in Shanghai were technological development and government macroeconomic policy,While the level of resilience in other provinces were undergo a transition between the above factors.The order of optimal control factors was ranked as adaptability>restoration>resistance,and the optimal control factors gradually shifted from resistance to adaptability.
作者
赵自阳
王红瑞
张力
刘璇
赵勇
ZHAO Ziyang;WANG Hongrui;ZHANG Li;LIU Xuan;ZHAO Yong(Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Modern Posts,Xi′an University of Posts and Telecommunications,Xi′an 710061,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期705-717,共13页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家重点研究计划资助项目(2019YFC0408902)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879010)。
关键词
水资源
水环境
社会经济
复杂系统
韧性
长江经济带
water resources
water environment
social economy
complex system
resilience
Yangtze River Economic Belt
