摘要
短期负荷预测是电力系统负荷预测的重要组成部分,是能量管理和配电管理的基础,对电力系统日常发电计划和运行有着重要意义。本文所做的短期负荷预测是基于混沌理论进行的本文利用混沌理论完成了对郑州市短期的负荷预测。首先,采用C-C算法对重构相空间的参数嵌入维数和延迟时间进行了求解,使用小数据量法求出最大Lyapunov指数,从而进行负荷时间序列的混沌特性的判别及可预测时长范围的确定。最后,建立了基于最大Lyapunov指数预测模型,对某市的整点负荷进行了预测。
Short-term load forecasting is an important part of power system load forecasting,which is the basis of energy management and distribution management,and is of great significance to daily power generation planning and operation of power system.The short-term load forecasting in this paper is based on chaos theory,which describes the physical attributes and influencing factors of the load well,and is a simple and feasible method for power system load forecasting with high forecasting accuracy.In this paper,the short-term load forecasting of Zhengzhou City is completed by using chaos theory.Firstly,the parameter embedding dimension and delay time of the reconstructed phase space are solved by C-C algorithm,and the maximum Lyapunov exponent is obtained by using the small data volume method,so as to discriminate the chaotic characteristics of load time series and determine the predictable time range.Finally,a forecasting model based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent is established to forecast the hourly load in Zhengzhou.
作者
傅兴吉
申艳伟
尹照洪
罗冲
Fu Xingji;Shen Yanwei;Yin Zhaohong;Luo Chong(Kunming Power Supply Bureau of Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.Kunming 650000,China)
出处
《云南电力技术》
2022年第5期54-59,共6页
Yunnan Electric Power
