摘要
本文采用2012-2018年北京大学的“中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据库”,分析“两孩”政策下农村家庭智力资本对家庭两孩生育行为的影响,并进一步探讨政府扶持对二者关系的调节作用。实证发现:我国中西部农村家庭智力资本呈现上升趋势,“两孩”生育行为从2018年开始有明显的下降。农村家庭智力资本中的教育和工作技能智力资本对“两孩”生育行为存在显著的抑制作用,说明农村家庭智力资本的上升是“两孩”生育行为下降的重要原因。政府总扶持强度存在同向的调节效应,即政府扶持强度越高,农村家庭智力资本提升对两孩生育行为的抑制作用越强,说明通过政府补助激励农村家庭生育率的效果有限,甚至可能加剧两孩的低生育率。
Based on the data of"China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)"by Peking University from 2012 to 2018,this paper analyzes the impact of rural family’s intellectual capital on the Second child fertility under the"two child"policy,and further discusses the regulatory effect of government support on the relationship between them.The empirical results show that the intellectual capital of rural families in China shows an upward trend,while the"second child"fertility has decreased significantly in 2018.the intellectual capital such as education and working skills of rural family has a significant inhibitory effect on the"second child"fertility,which indicates that the increasing rural family intellectual capital is an important reason for the decline of fertility in the rural.However the government supports has the regulatory effect on the second child fertility in same direction,that is,the more government supports for the rural family,the stronger inhibitory effect of the increasing rural family intellectual capital on the"second child"fertility.It shows that the effect of promoting rural family fertility through government subsidies is limited,and it even exacerbates the low fertility rate.
作者
周快快
王染
ZHOU Kuai-kuai;WANG Ran(School of Computer and Information Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha,410004;School of Management,Hunan Institute of Engineering,Xiangtan,411104)
出处
《南方人口》
CSSCI
2022年第4期14-23,13,共11页
South China Population
基金
湖南省教育厅重点项目“后扶贫时代产业扶贫与产业成长能力协同研究”(19A110)。
关键词
家庭智力资本
二孩政策
生育行为
政府扶持
Family intellectual capital
Two child policy
Fertility
Government supports
