摘要
本研究以线上逝者纪念数据为基础,并根据具有全国代表性的死亡人口数据对其进行加权调整,得到了近现代中国百年来的死亡人口历史分布形态,其具有较长的历史跨度,具有时间上的连续性,又能突破局部性数据的限制,具有全国的代表性。本研究得到了中国近现代历史上第一张完整的、连续的、具有全国代表性的死亡人口历史分布形态图,并基于此得到了详细的死亡人口的性别分布形态和寿命分布形态。中国近现代的死亡人口分布形态具有明显的阶段性特征,其大致呈现了解放前的高死亡率阶段、解放后到改革开放前的死亡模式调整动荡阶段、改革开放后至2005年间的转型阶段和2005年后的稳定阶段的“四阶段”的死亡人口变迁模式。从方法论上来看,本研究采用的依据海量大数据校准加权方法在历史人口学的研究领域具有一定的开创性,可以为其他研究所借鉴。
This study collects a massive online data of the deceased and weighted in terms of the data of national population death to obtain a historical distribution pattern of the population death in China in the past 100 years.The data show a long historical span of the overall population death with time continuity in China without the limitation the missing or inaccuracy of official statistical death data in a long time span early than the founding of PRC.We obtain the first complete,continuous and national historical distribution pattern of the dead population in China's modern history.Moreover we obtain a detailed gender distribution pattern of population death and a life span distribution pattern of the dead population of the corresponding period.the data analysis show that the death pattern of population in China in the past 100 years changed by the following obvious 4 phase:The high mortality stage before the founding of PRC,the adjustment and turbulence stage of death pattern from 1950 to 1978,the transformation stage from 1978 to 2005,and the stable stage after 2005.Therefore,theoretically the analysis of these online data of population death can be a interesting reference and correction of the historical population death study.
作者
政光景
梁玉成
ZHENG Guang-jing;LIANG Yu-cheng(School of Sociology&Anthropology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275)
出处
《南方人口》
CSSCI
2022年第4期49-60,共12页
South China Population
关键词
死亡人口历史分布
在线逝者纪念数据
校准加权
Historical distribution of population death
Online data of the deceased
Calibration weighting
