摘要
基于2015—2020年CEPII-BACI数据库与国家财政部发布的《对美中止关税减让义务商品清单》《对美加征关税商品清单》,采用双重差分法考察中国对美关税制裁对进口贸易边际的影响。研究发现:中国对美关税制裁显著提高了进口广度和进口价格,该结论在考虑了动态效应、安慰剂检验以及剔除征税目录未涉及的HS4位数产品后依然稳健。异质性检验表明,中国对美关税制裁显著提升了农产品与非农产品的进口广度,提高了非农产品进口价格;同时提升(提高)了中间品与非中间品的进口广度和进口价格,对非中间品的贸易破坏更为严重。最后,对于中美双边贸易,中国对美关税制裁具有贸易破坏和贸易转移效应,但不会显著影响该部分的商品价格。
Based on the CEPII-BACI database from 2015 to 2020,the List of Goods Subject to Suspension of Tariff Concessions with the United States and the List of Goods Subject to Tariff Imposition with the United States issued by the Ministry of Finance,this paper uses the differenceindifferencemodel to examine the impact of China’s tariff sanctions against the United States and import trade margins.The study found that China’s tariff sanctions against the United States significantly increased the import breadth and import price.This conclusion remains stable after considering the dynamic effect,placebo test and excluding HS4 digit products not involved in the tax catalog.The heterogeneity test shows that China’s tariff sanctions against the United States have significantly increased the import breadth of agricultural products and non-agricultural products,and increased the import price of non-agricultural products;At the same time,the import scope and price of intermediate goods and non-intermediate goods have been improved(increased),and the trade damage to non-intermediate goods is more serious.Finally,for bilateral trade between China and the United States,China’s tariff sanctions against the United States have trade destruction and trade diversion effects,but will not significantly affect the commodity prices of this part.
作者
潘昌蔚
景国文
PAN Chang-wei;JING Guo-wen(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2022年第12期62-70,共9页
基金
天津市教育委员会研究生科研创新项目“生育政策优化对居民收入分配的影响、作用机制与政策支持模拟”(编号:2021YJSB032)。
关键词
制裁关税
进口贸易
贸易转移
贸易破坏
tariff sanctions
import trade
trade diversion
trade destruction
