摘要
党的十九届五中全会明确要求,要改变城乡居民收入分配差距较大的现状,到2035年城乡区域发展差距和居民生活水平差距显著缩小。本文对我国近30年来城乡居民收入差距主要影响因素贡献度的动态演变进行描述和量化分析,建立了基于1990-2018年我国分省数据的面板模型,对影响城乡居民收入差距的长期因素进行识别和判断,在此基础上对未来城乡居民收入差距的走势进行分析。研究发现:我国城乡居民收入差距长期走势的变化主要由经济发展阶段所决定;农业与非农业劳动生产率的比值、农村就业中非农就业的比重、农民工与城镇职工工资的比值是决定城乡居民收入差距长期走势的主要因素。在新的发展阶段下,我国城乡居民收入差距的拐点已经基本到来,未来将呈现缓慢下降的趋势。基于此,应从提高农业劳动生产率、农村就业中非农就业的比重、农民工与城镇职工工资的比值等方面缩小城乡居民收入差距。
The 5th Plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China demanded that China’s urban-rural income gap should be narrowed by 2035.This paper aims to explain the determinants of China’s urban-rural household income gap and predict its movement trend.We first describe the dynamics and contribution of the gap-related factors since 1990.Then we built econometric model based on the provincial data during 1990-2018 to identify the driving forces of the gap in the long term.The findings include that the determinate factors for the gap are the ratio of labor productivity of agricultural to non-agricultural sector,the ratio of rural employees working in the agricultural sector to the total,as well as the ratio of the average wage of rural to urban employees.We predict that the turning point of the gap has appeared.The trend of the gap will be slowly decreasing.Policies promoting the increase of the agriculture productivity,the ratio of rural employees working in the non-agricultural sectors,and the ratio of average wage of rural to urban employees will help to narrow the urban-rural gap.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2022年第5期23-27,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(17BJY027)
国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991475)。
关键词
城乡居民收入差距
拐点预测
劳动生产率
就业
工资
China’s urban-rural household income gap
turning point prediction
productivity
employment
wage
