摘要
湄公河流域国家是中国周边重要的合作伙伴,是共同推进“一带一路”建设的核心地区,开展地缘政治风险评估对于中国在该流域国家开展投资和经济合作具有重要的现实意义。该文运用层次分析(AHP)方法构建地缘政治风险指标和数学模型,基于多源数据对2011-2019年湄公河流域国家地缘政治风险进行定量评估。研究表明:1)湄公河流域国家的地缘政治风险空间差异明显,由西向东呈递减趋势,其中缅甸为高风险等级,泰国、老挝、柬埔寨为中风险等级,越南为低风险等级;2)2011-2019年湄公河流域国家整体地缘政治风险基本呈下降趋势,但存在一定的不确定性;3)湄公河流域国家地缘政治风险对中国边境安全和对外直接投资等均有影响,且不同类型地缘政治风险的影响不同。
Mekong River Basin countries are important cooperative partners around China and the core region to jointly promote the construction of the "The Belt and Road Initiative".The assessment of geopolitical risks in the Mekong River Basin is of great practical significance for China to carry out investment and economic cooperation in the countries of this region.Using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method,geopolitical risk indicators and mathematical models are constructed to quantitatively assess the geopolitical risks of Mekong River Basin countries from 2011 to 2019 based on multi-source data.The result shows that:1) the geopolitical risks of Mekong River Basin countries vary spatially significantly and show a decreasing trend from west to east,with Myanmar at a high-risk level,Thailand,Laos,and Cambodia at a medium risk level,and Vietnam at a low-risk level;2) the overall geopolitical risks of the region show a decreasing trend from 2011 to 2019,but there is a certain degree of uncertainty;3) the geopolitical risks of Mekong River Basin countries have an impact on China′s border security and OFDI(outward foreign direct investment),and different types of geopolitical risks have different impacts.
作者
葛旭瑞
李灿松
胡平平
刘宇斯
GE Xu-rui;LI Can-song;HU Ping-ping;LIU Yu-si(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500;Center for Myanmar Studies,Centre for Country and Regional Studies,Ministry of Education,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期52-59,共8页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
云南省中青年学术技术带头人后备人才项目(202105AC160059)
云南省科技基础专项重点项目(202001AS070032)
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2022Y178)。
关键词
地缘政治
风险评估
影响
湄公河流域国家
geopolitics
risk evaluation
influence
Mekong River Basin countries
