摘要
“新基建”是数字经济时代中国加速经济转型升级提出的基础设施投资战略。美国积累的社会结构学派认为,基础设施投资是经济长周期的起点和重要推动力,经济增长有赖于由一整套制度所构成的社会结构。本文从积累的社会结构理论入手分析“新基建”与中国经济高质量发展的关系,按照中国GDP增速变化,将1982年至今划分为五个经济增长阶段,通过研究前四个阶段基础设施投资和经济增长的变动关系,预测“新基建”战略下中国经济增长趋势。研究发现:基础设施投资增长率和GDP增长率呈正相关关系,基础设施投资的增减决定了经济波动曲线的形状,且大约每十年出现一次经济增长高峰;“新基建”将通过投资的拉动和辐射作用加快技术改造和产业转型升级,推进中国经济高质量发展。本文建议,紧密联系社会再生产的过程,克服经济发展中的内部矛盾,充分释放“新基建”对经济高质量发展的促进作用,筑牢高质量发展之基。
“New Infrastructure” is an infrastructure investment strategy put forward by China to accelerate economic transformation and upgrading in the era of the digital economy. The American Social Structures of Accumulation school believes that infrastructure investment is a starting point and an important driving force for a long economic cycle, and sustained economic growth depends on a stable social structure maintained by a set of institutions. Starting with the Social Structures of Accumulation theory, this paper analyzes the relationship between “new infrastructure” and the high-quality development of China’s economy. According to the changes in China’s GDP growth rate, it is divided into five economic growth stages from 1982 to now. By studying the relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth in the first four stages, the trend of China’s economic growth under the “new infrastructure” strategy is predicted. The study finds: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is positively correlated with the growth rate of GDP. The increase and decrease of infrastructure investment determine the shape of the curve of economic fluctuations, and the peak appears approximately every ten years. “New infrastructure” will accelerate the technological transformation and industrial transformation and upgrading through the pull and radiation of investment, and promote the high-quality development of China’s economy. This paper suggests that we should closely link the process of social reproduction, overcome the internal contradictions in economic development, fully release the role of “new infrastructure” in promoting high-quality economic development, and build a solid foundation for high-quality development.
作者
吕守军
毕钰洁
LYU Shou-jun;BI Yu-jie(School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University 200030;Institution of Politics and Economics,Shanghai Jiao Tong University ,200030)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第10期57-67,共11页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目(项目编号:22ZDA052)
国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:15BJL003)的阶段性成果之一。
关键词
新基建投资
高质量发展
美国积累的社会结构学派
经济长周期
数字经济
New Infrastructure Investment
High-quality Development
American Social Structures of Accumulation
Long Economic Waves
Digital Economy
