摘要
新版战略概念文件的发布,标志着北约未来十年大战略方向的确定。一是应对大国地缘政治竞争成为北约最为优先的战略目标,以“泛安全化”方式整合安全政策成为北约未来应对安全风险的新方式;二是重申北约在欧洲安全体系中的主导地位,暂时理清了北约-欧盟在欧洲防务供给体系中的关系;三是战略扩张突破跨大西洋地理界限,将亚太地区作为战略扩张重点方向。新一轮北约战略转型的启动,将重塑欧洲和亚洲地区安全秩序,推动大国战略竞争向着“泛安全化”和混合性方向发展。北约战略转型受到四方面限制因素的影响,包括联盟对俄强硬政策共识的持久性、美国东西两个方向的战略平衡、美欧矛盾与分歧再次爆发的隐患和美欧亚太利益的差异。在对华政策方面,应对中国崛起带来的“系统性挑战”,已被纳入北约未来战略规划,北约亦保留了对华建设性政策接触空间。北约战略转型启动,给中国周边安全和国家利益维护带来了不容忽视的风险。未来中国与北约关系将会呈现出“有限竞争、非敌非友”的非结构性状态,多种因素将限制双方关系向着对抗方向发展。中国应精准把握和利用对自身有利的战略空间,妥善管控北约新一轮战略转型带来的负面影响。
The release of the new version of NATO's Strategic Concept document means that it has already fixed its grand strategic direction for the next decade.Firstly,coping with the geopolitical competition between different powers has become the NATO's top strategic goal and integrating security policies in a"pan-securitization"method a new way for it to deal with security risks in the future.Secondly,it reaffirms the NATO's dominant position in the European security system and the relationship between NATO and the EU in the European defense supply system has been clarified.Thirdly,the NATO's strategic expansion has broken through the transatlantic geographical boundary,with the Indo-Pacific region as the key.The launch of the NATO's strategic transformation will reshape the security order in Europe and Asia,and promote the strategic competition among powers to the direction of"pan-securitization"and hybridization.The strategic transformation of NATO is affected by four restrictive factors,including the persistence of the Alliance's consensus on a tough policy toward Russia,the strategic balance of the United States'strategic resources allocation,the re-emergence of contradictions and differences between the United States and Europe,and the divergence of interests between the United States and Europe in the Asia-Pacific region.In terms of China policy,coping with the"systemic challenges"brought about by China's rise has been incorporated into the NATO's future strategic planning,but it at the same time has retained space for constructive policy engagement with China.The launch of NATO's strategic transformation has brought risks that cannot be ignored for China's peripheral security and national interests.In the future,the relationship between China and NATO will show a non-structural state of“limited competition,neither enemy nor friend”,and various factors determine that the relationship between the two sides will not develop into that of confrontation.
出处
《欧洲研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期59-82,I0003,I0004,共26页
Chinese Journal of European Studies
基金
2021年国家社会科学基金重大项目“欧洲对外战略调整与中欧关系研究”(项目编号:21&ZD171)的阶段性研究成果。
