摘要
民爆行业是推进现代化建设和社会发展的重要行业,国家基础建设的快速发展使民爆物品的需求量迅速增大。由于民爆物品本身就具有危险特性,在其生产、运输、贮存和使用等过程中都有发生爆炸的可能性,严重威胁了人民群众的生命财产安全和社会稳定。为了充分了解民爆物品爆炸事故的危害性,有针对性的做好民爆物品的安全管理,并进行有效防控,以2012—2021年我国发生的102起民爆物品爆炸事故为统计分析对象,采用数理统计的方法对事故发生年份、发生省份、发生事故等级、发生环节以及原因进行分析,并采用灰色马尔可夫预测模型对2022—2023年的民爆物品爆炸事故起数和死亡人数进行预测。结果表明:2012年、2014年、2016年发生的民爆物品爆炸事故起数最多,2020年造成的死亡人数最少;发生事故等级中较大事故比重最大;湖南、河北和陕西是民爆物品爆炸事故高发省份;民爆物品爆炸事故多发生在生产和爆破作业环节,机械撞击和摩擦是导致民爆物品爆炸的主要原因;预测2022年和2023年的民爆物品爆炸事故起数分别为6、5起,死亡人数分别为18、17人,事故起数和死亡人数均呈下降趋势,安全形式趋于稳定。研究结果对加强我国民爆物品安全管理和减少民爆物品爆炸事故的发生具有重要意义。
Civil explosive industry is a significant industry to promote the modernization construction and social development.Thus the rapid development of the national infrastructure construction increases the demand for civil explosive goods rapidly.Because of dangerous characteristics,there is the possibility of explosion in the process of their production,transportation,storage and use,which seriously threatens the safety of people′s lives and property and social stability.In order to further understand the dangers of civil explosive goods explosion accidents,targeted civil explosive goods safety management,and effective prevention and control,with 102 cases from 2012—2021 as the statistical object,using the mathematical statistics method of accident year,province,accident level,occurrence and cause,and predict the Grey Markov prediction model in 2022—2023.The results show that the most explosive accidents in 2012,2014,2014 and 2016,the least deaths in 2020 and the largest proportion;Hunan,Hubei and Shaanxi are high provinces in production and use,and mechanical impact and friction in production and transportation are the main causes of explosive explosions in 2022 and 2023 are 6 and 5 respectively,with 18 and 17 deaths respectively.The results are of great significance to strengthen the safety management of civil explosive articles and reduce the occurrence of civil explosive accidents.
作者
张飞燕
张念思
韩颖
何鑫
ZHANG Fei-yan;ZHANG Nian-si;HAN Ying;HE Xin(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003,China;School of Energy Science and Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization,Jiaozuo 454003,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Coalbed Methane and Shale Gas for Central Plains Economic Region(Henan Province),Jiaozuo 454003,China;Technology Platform of Deep Mine Strata Control and Methane Drainage for State Administration of Work Safety,Jiaozuo 454003,China;State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base for Gas Geology and Gas Control(Henan Polytechnic University),Jiaozuo 454003,China)
出处
《爆破》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期192-200,共9页
Blasting
基金
家自然科学基金资助项目(51974108、51404093)
河南省博士后科研项目(001701014)
河南省高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(NSFRF210315)
河南省瓦斯地质与瓦斯治理重点实验室——省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地开放基金项目(WS2020B12、WS2012A09)
河南理工大学博士基金资助项目(B2008-15、B2012-093)。
关键词
民爆物品
爆炸事故
统计分析
预测模型
灰色马尔可夫预测
civil explosive items
explosion hazard
statistical analysis
prediction model
gray Markov predictions
