摘要
运用Manna-Kendall趋势检验法、累积双曲线法和累积等距平法等,对梅江上游宁都水文站1959—2019年年均降雨量和年径流量的年内、年际变化特征以及突变点等进行了分析研究,并计算了气候变化和人类活动对流域径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:梅江上游流域降水、径流在年内的分布不均,4—6月降雨量和径流量约占全年降水总量和径流总量的一半;总体上1959—2019年流域降雨量、径流量随时间变化呈现不明显的波动上升态势,并在1962年、1991年、2002年和2011年出现了突变;近50 a来,梅江上游流域主要为相对枯水期,径流量的变化主要受降水的影响。
Based on manna-Kendall trend test,cumulative hyperbola method and cumulative anomaly method,the variation trend and abrupt change point of annual precipitation and annual runoff at Ningdu Hydrological station in the upper Reaches of Meijiang River from 1959 to 2019 were analyzed,and the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the variation of runoff was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the distribution of precipitation and runoff in the upper Reaches of Meijiang River basin is uneven,and the precipitation and runoff from April to June account for about half of the total annual precipitation and runoff.On the whole,precipitation and runoff in the basin showed an insignificant fluctuation trend from 1959 to 2019,and abrupt changes occurred in 1962,1991,2002 and 2011.In the past 50 years,the upper reaches of Meijiang River basin was mainly in a relatively dry period,and the change of runoff forecast was mainly affected by precipitation.
作者
杨宝林
YANG Baolin(Ganzhou Survey And Design Institute Of Water Conservancy And Hydropower,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi)
出处
《广东水利水电》
2022年第12期43-47,共5页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
关键词
降雨量
径流量
突变
贡献率
precipitation
flow discharge
Mutation
contribution
