摘要
基于广东省86个气象站1961—2021年的气温、降水量资料和1:250000数字高程模型(DEM)数据,采用线性趋势分析、累积距平和反距离权重插值等方法,分析了影响荔枝种植的关键气候因子年平均气温(Ty)、年极端最低气温(T_(min))、上年12—2月日平均气温≤10℃低温寒积量(∑(10-t)_(12-2))、3月平均降水量(R3)的时空变化特征,以及1961—1990年、1971—2000年、1981—2010年、1991—2020年、年平均气温突变前(1961—1997年)、突变后(1998—2021年)等6个气候时段的变化特征,研究了气候变化对广东省荔枝种植气候区划的影响。结果表明:广东省T_(y)、T_(min)的空间分布表现为南高北低、平原高山区低的格局,∑(10-t)_(12-2)总体呈北多南少、山地多平原少的空间分布,R_(3)大体表现为从西南向东北递增的特征;1961—2021年,广东省T_(y)、T_(min)分别以0.2℃·10 a^(-1)、0.4℃·10 a^(-1)的速率显著上升,∑(10-t)12-2以14.0℃·d·10 a^(-1)的速率显著下降,R_(3)以4.7 mm·10 a^(-1)的速率呈不显著的上升趋势;T_(y)于1997年发生了突变;广东荔枝气候区划可分为适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区;气候适宜区主要分布在粤东、珠江口沿岸和粤西北部地区,次适宜区主要位于湛江、云浮和珠三角北部地区,不适宜区集中在粤北、肇庆北部和云雾山脉一带;受气候变化的影响,广东荔枝种植气候适宜区和次适宜区面积有所扩大,不适宜区面积有所减小;与1961—1990年相比,1991—2020年广东省荔枝种植气候适宜区、次适宜区面积分别增加了0.44×10~6和1.02×10^(6)hm^(2),不适宜区面积减小了8.09×10^(6)hm^(2);与年平均气温突变前(1961—1997年)相比,突变后(1998—2021年)荔枝种植气候适宜区、次适宜区面积分别增加了0.08×10~6和2.01×10^(6)hm^(2),不适宜区面积减小了2.08×10^(6)hm^(2)。
Based on the dataset of air temperature and precipitation from 86 stations during 1961 to 2021 and DEM data derived from 1:250000 topographic maps,we analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of key climate factors such as annual mean temperature(T_(y)),annual extreme minimum temperature(T_(min)),cold accumulation of average daily temperature≤10℃from previous December to February(∑(10-t)_(12-2)),average precipitation in March(R_(3))using the methods of linear regression,accumulative anomaly,and inverse distance weighted interpolation.We examined the impacts of climate change on climatic division for litchi planting by combining the changes of four key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990,1971-2000,1981-2010,1991-2020,before(1961-1997)and after T_(y) mutation(1998-2021).The results showed that spatial distributions of the four key climate factors for litchi planting varied across different places in Guangdong.Generally,T_(y) and T_(min) were higher in south parts than that in north parts and higher in plain than that in mountain regions.∑(10-t)_(12-2) was higher in north parts than that in south parts and higher in mountain than that in plain regions.R_(3) increased from southwest to northeast.Under the background of global warming,T_(y) and T_(min) showed a significant increasing trend with a rate of 0.2℃and 0.4℃per decade,respectively,whereas R_(3) showed an insignificant upward trend and∑(10-t)_(12-2) even showed significant drop with a rate of 14.0℃·d per decade.T_(y) had mutation in 1997.According to the climatic conditions of litchi growth and development,the climatic division for litchi planting could be divided into three regions in Guangdong:suitable region,sub-suitable region,and unsuitable region.The suitable region was mainly distributed in the east of Guangdong,the coast of Pearl River Delta,and the north part of western Guangdong.The sub-suitable region was mainly located in Zhanjiang,Yunfu,and the northern Pearl River Delta.The unsuitable region was concentrated in northern Guangdong,northern Zhaoqing,and the Yunwu Mountains.Due to the climate change,the areas of suitable and sub-suitable regions increased,whereas the area of unsuitable region decreased.Relative to that in 1961-1990,the areas of suitable and sub-suitable regions in 1991-2020 increased by 0.44×10^(6)hm^(2) and 1.02×10^(6)hm^(2),respectively,while the area of unsuitable region decreased by 8.09×10^(6)hm^(2).The areas of suitable and sub-suitable regions increased by 0.08×10~6 and 2.01×10^(6)hm^(2),respectively,while the area of unsuitable region decreased by 2.08×10^(6)hm^(2) after climate mutation(1998-2021)compared to that before climate mutation(1961-1997)in Guangdong.
作者
杜晓阳
张柳红
邓玉娇
DU Xiao-yang;ZHANG Liu-hong;DENG Yu-jiao(Yuzhou Meteorological Office,Henan Province,Yuzhou 461670,Henan,China;Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangdong Ecological Meteorology Center,Guangzhou 510640,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期1998-2007,共10页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
广东省科技计划项目子课题(2018B030324001-6)
广东省自然科学基金青年项目(2020A1515110423)
华南区域(广东省)气候变化创新团队项目(GRMCTD202101)资助。
关键词
气候突变
区划指标
气候区划
气候适宜性
荔枝种植
广东
climate mutation
division indicator
climatic division
climatic suitability
litchi planting
Guangdong
