摘要
为更准确地评估城市区域安全风险,提出灾害链网络下的城市区域安全风险评估模型,并建立灾害链网络结构表征模型,采用复杂网络的抗毁性调整灾害链网络安全风险;提出衡量灾害链网络的安全风险不确定性和历史数据客观性的方法,降低模型的历史依赖性和不确定性,利用源头管控和风险防范能力削减区域风险;以某城区为应用对象,利用所提评估模型,评估该区域安全风险。结果表明:该方法能够同时考虑灾害之间的触发作用、灾害链网络的抗毁性,结合风险不确定性和历史数据客观性,评估城市区域安全风险。实例应用证明,城市灾害的触发关系以及形成灾害链网络结构会加剧城市区域安全风险。
To assess the risk of urban areas more accurately,a safety risk assessment model of urban areas based on disaster chain networks was proposed.The structure representation model of disaster chain network was established,and the risk of disaster chain network was adjusted by the resilience of complex network.A method to measure the risk uncertainty of disaster chain network and the objectivity of historical data was established to reduce the historical dependence and uncertainty of the model.The source control and risk prevention capabilities were used to reduce regional risks.Taking an urban area as the application object,the proposed evaluation model was used to evaluate the regional security risk.The results show that the method simultaneously considers the trigger effect between disasters and the resilience of disaster chain network,the risk uncertainty and the objectivity of historical data,and evaluates the security risk of urban area.Through the example application,it is proved that the triggering relationship of urban disaster and the formation of disaster chain network structure will aggravate the security risk of urban region.
作者
陈国华
李佳玲
陈学希
杨琴
CHEN Guohua;LI Jialing;CHEN Xuexi;YANG Qin(Institute of Safety Science and Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou Guangdong 510641,China;Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期146-153,共8页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
广东省省级科技计划项目(2019B020208011)。
关键词
灾害链网络
城市区域
安全风险评估
城市灾害
复杂网络
disaster chain retworks
urban area
safety risk assessment
urban disaster
complex networks
