摘要
台风灾害避难所布局优化是沿海地区灾害风险管理的一项重要内容和难点所在。以海南省海口市为例,构建以最小化总疏散距离为目标的台风灾害避难所P-中值模型,采用GIS位置分配分析和最短路径分析法进行解算,得到布局优化后所有居民点的空间分配方案以及最短疏散路径,并针对海口市灾害避难所建设存在的问题提出了科学研究、城市规划和政策管理三个层面的对策建议。结果表明:(1)布局优化后,海口市87个候选避难所被选中用以服务468个居民点,跨区避难的居民点占比6.62%,居民点平均疏散时间为50 min。其北部市辖区避难所数量冗余问题得以解决,南部农村地区优化效果不明显。(2)海口市凤翔社区典型示范区内居民点的平均最短疏散路径长608.04 m,所有灾民均可步行15 min内到达避难所。(3)海口市灾害避难所规划建设进程缓慢、空间分布不尽合理,建议考虑充分利用现有避难所,开展避难所补充选址优化研究。结合区域特色和城市规划,逐步扩建或新增灾害避难所;重视跨区避难问题,加强防减灾软硬件建设与区域协作。研究成果可为海口市灾害避难所的区位选择与疏散方案提供参考,为应急管理人员提供决策支持。
Layout optimization for typhoon disaster shelters is an important content and a difficulty of disaster risk management in coastal areas. Taking Haikou City of Hainan Province as a study case, a P-median model of typhoon disaster shelter with the target to minimize the total evacuation distance is constructed and is solved by means of GIS location assignment analysis and shortest path analysis method, and then the space allocation scheme and shortest evacuation route of all residential areas after the layout optimization are obtained, while the countermeasures and suggestions on three levels, i.e. scientific research, urban planning and policy management, are put forward for the problems in the construction of disaster shelters in Haikou City. The results show that(1) 87 candidate shelters in Haikou City are selected to serve 468 residential areas with the proportion of the residential areas for cross-area refuge of 6.62% and the mean evacuation time of 50 min after the layout optimization, and then the problem of the quantity redundancy of the shelters in the northern municipal districts is solved, but the optimization effect in the southern rural area is not so obvious;(2) the mean shortest evacuation route is 608.04 m for the typical demonstration area of Fengxiang Community in Haikou City, thus all victims can reach the shelter within 15 minutes on foot;(3) as the planning and construction process of disaster shelters in Haikou City is slow and the spatial distribution is unreasonable, it is suggested to make full use of the existing shelters and carry out the study on the optimization of the supplementary site selection for the shelters, for which the disaster shelters are necessary to be gradually expanded or added in combination with the regional characteristics and urban planning therein, while the attention to the problem of cross-area refuge is to be paid and both the construction of software and hardware for disaster prevention and mitigation and the cooperation among areas are necessary to be strengthened as well. The study results can not only provide the references for the location selection and the evacuation plan of disaster shelters in Haikou City, but can also provide decision support for the emergency managers concerned.
作者
马运佳
朱盛楠
张恺雯
杨雨蒙
刘宝印
MA Yunjia;ZHU Shengnan;ZHANG Kaiwen;YANG Yumeng;LIU Baoyin(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,Shandong,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2022年第10期101-109,共9页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41807510)
日照市自然科学基金项目(RZ2021ZR39)。
